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Tens of thousands of people wanted to make it clear to Act leader David Seymour that he was not going to get his way. Not this time. If ever there was a message sent to Wellington, we saw it when the Hīkoi mō te Tiriti arrived in the capital.
I was there in 2004 for the seabed and foreshore hīkoi and looking at the images and reading the commentary, this latest one had many more people and much more feeling. So, I misjudged it earlier in the week when I said I didn’t think it would be as big.
To anyone who might have missed it – where have you been? – the hīkoi focused on Act’s Treaty Principles Bill, but there are wider issues at play. As well as being against the bill, protesters are also concerned at what seems like a general erosion of Māori rights.
This week’s hīkoi was far bigger than 2004′s - and race relations are now more prominent than they were this time a year ago when the Christopher Luxon-led National Party was negotiating with Act and NZ First to form a government.
In fact, I’d say race relations are now more prominent than they have been for decades. It’s Luxon and his much-hyped negotiation skills that I blame for the potentially divisive and dangerous situation the country finds itself in.
What on Earth was Luxon thinking allowing such a debate to be run by the minor party to the right of his? Did he think it wouldn’t play out like this? Is he genuinely naive, or has he spent so much time overseas that he really has no idea about the history of New Zealand and the part race relations plays in it?
The fact that the Treaty Principals Bill has Seymour’s name on it and would, if passed into law, effectively water down hard-earned Māori rights, virtually neutralising Te Tiriti o Waitangi to that of a powerless historical document, was always going to get a massive reaction. Honestly, putting the Act leader’s face on a treaty debate is the equivalent of dressing in red and standing still at the running of the bulls in Pamplona.
Seymour claims the Treaty Principles Bill argues that it’s time to reinterpret and legally define the principles of the 1840 Treaty of Waitangi, so I asked him what Māori would lose if his bill was passed. He replied they would effectively lose their special status and sit alongside the rest of us, meaning they would no longer have an automatic right to be represented and consulted at every turn. It would mean Māori and Pākehā had the same equal rights - and while that sounds non-threatening, for Māori there’s a lot more to it. They’re not going to happily concede everything fought for and awarded since 1975 when the Waitangi Tribunal was formed.
So, why let it even reach this stage – particularly given that Seymour’s aim appears to be to play the long game? He wants this debate to endure well past the Parliamentary process. He’s told me he wants to get as many Kiwis on his side as possible, so it makes it awfully difficult for National to vote it down in six months’ time.
For Seymour, this is not about the now or the numbers on the hīkoi. It’s about trying to flush out what he hopes is a “silent majority” – those who support his stance - to participate in this debate and to give Luxon the headache of having to change his position.
Seymour is trying to appeal to Pākehā who feel excluded or threatened by the treaty and consider it something of benefit to only Māori. It has echoes of Don Brash in his 2004 Orewa speech, but that was 20 years ago and generational change means the debate has moved on and the players are different. Success will also rely on how the media treats this debate and already I sense it’s anti-Seymour, especially post the hīkoi.
Nevertheless if he can motivate the older crowd, then he hopes it puts National under some pressure. So, the PM will closely watch the polling on this and whether he has to change tack.
That goes one of two ways. Luxon backs the bill, and a new mass hīkoi to Wellington – and then some – takes place; he rejects it and has to turn his back on traditional National supporters who back Seymour’s bill.
It was a ridiculously foolhardy thing to agree to in coalition negotiations, even if you had no intention of supporting the bill passed its first reading. Did the coalition formation really rely on this deal? No, I doubt it but Luxon and co lacked the courage to tell Act to sit on the crossbenches if they were holding tight to this position (and that they would stand a National Party candidate in Epsom at the next election).
As the hīkoi arrived in Wellington, Luxon was arriving back from an overseas trip and felt it unnecessary to address the crowds. Seymour and his Act colleagues made a brief appearance.
Whatever happens, this is Seymour’s 2026 election campaign underway now. He wants Act to return to Parliament in even greater numbers and he’s starting to target National’s core supporters.
It’s an issue that won’t go away and that’s on Luxon.
For Māori, the Treaty of Waitangi is a document with no end point. It was meant to be a partnership agreement, but the rights of one partner – the Crown – took precedence over and eroded the rights of the other partner, Māori, who see the treaty as a living and breathing document.
Labour’s Willie Jackson made it clear to me there will be future demands, settlements and grievances that we simply don’t know about. I wondered if it meant Māori want an entirely separate system and while some do, Jackson says it’s not for him. He believes Māori can do better within “the system” than going it alone, which comes with far more uncertainty.
Whatever happens, this is Seymour’s 2027 election campaign underway now. He wants Act to return to Parliament in even greater numbers and he’s starting to target National’s core supporters.
But who knows what’s next?
Seymour clearly sees this as a marathon and not a sprint; so do Māori. It’s a long game with milestones along the way, but there is no finish line – and Māori rightly expect to be treated like an equal partner.
The hīkoi is a reminder that Māori can mobilise, that they won’t roll over and the so-called Māori renaissance is certainly not over. Did you see the number of rangitahi taking part? More and more, the Kohanga Generation – those who have been educated in kaupapa Māori schools – are now being joined by their own well-educated kids and grandkids.
Given that we’re still so young as a country, less than 250 years old, the Māori renaissance and supposed “Treaty industry” is still in its infancy.
Really, the best Luxon can do is hope that the majority of public submissions on the bill are against it, proving that he’s right when he says that the bill is divisive and unhelpful, and that it’s not helping New Zealand get back on track. In short, New Zealanders don’t want it.
Then, he can put Seymour back in his box. So, he’ll be praying that the bill dies a quick death. In any event, the great negotiator has ended up looking like a chump. And he knows it.
