New Zealander Bernard Lagan is the Australian correspondent for the Times, London.
OPINION: Australia’s fast track to acquiring nuclear-powered submarines from the United States and Britain puts a gulf between it and its close security ally, New Zealand.
It’s not just because of the cost of the vessels – up to A$368 billion ($395 billion) over the next 30 years – but also because Australia is shifting its decades-long focus on the defence of the mainland to one of projecting lethal force into far-distant waters, the realm of China.
All this is occurring with the barest of public debate and a lean case put forward by the Albanese Labor government.
The move will further embed Australia with the US military and, by implication, draw it deeper into the US foreign policy web – especially as it relates to the US defence of Taiwan, should Beijing attempt to occupy the territory.
The nuclear submarines will come first from the US, which will supply up to five secondhand 115m, 135-crew Virginia-class boats. Later, eight vessels of a new hybrid British design, equipped with a US combat system, will be built in Adelaide.
They are being supplied under the new Aukus defence pact between Australia, Britain and the US ‒ but not New Zealand.
New Zealand, nevertheless, remains a treaty ally of Australia under Anzus – the 71-year-old collective security agreement. It was originally between New Zealand, Australia and the US, until America withdrew its security guarantee to New Zealand in 1986 after Wellington banned nuclear warships.
When the nuclear-powered front line of Australia’s defence force arrives, they will also be banned from New Zealand – potentially an irritant to NZ’s most important security partner and the only one nearby.
As Dr Anna Powles, a senior lecturer in security studies at Massey University, and her colleagues have written, Wellington might find that Canberra’s expectations of what defence burdens its junior alliance partner will share might rise if New Zealand is to demonstrate its commitment to the alliance with Australia.
The Aukus defence pact is not limited to submarine technology; the three countries have also agreed to work together closely to share and develop advanced military technology, ranging from hypersonic missiles to cyber technology.
It’s a development which, over the longer term, will likely leave New Zealand’s forces with less ability to operate alongside their better-equipped, higher-tech Australian counterparts.
Australia’s defence spending is already around 2% of GDP and, according to the Aukus architect and former prime minister, Scott Morrison, that will rise to 2.5%, almost another $9 billion a year.
That increase alone is well above New Zealand’s annual defence budget which, at $6 billion, hovers around 1.5% of GDP.
With the cost-cutting pressure on Australia’s army and air force that the enormous spending on the submarines will create, it will not be surprising if attitudes harden towards what they perceive as New Zealand’s freeloading attitude. Will they be willing to maintain the tempo of defence exercises with an under-resourced partner?
New Zealand’s new Defence Minister, Andrew Little, appears more alive to these concerns than his predecessor, Peeni Henare, under whose watch large purchases, such as a Southern Ocean patrol vessel, were deferred.
This month, Australia will make public the unclassified version of its just-completed threat assessment and arms shopping list – the Defence Strategic Review. Expect the most explicit official summary yet of the threat posed by China’s rapid military buildup and, very likely, the case for Australia to acquire new weapons such as long-range missiles.
Australia will hope that New Zealand, this time, responds with more than words.
