Here’s a reality check: Aotearoa has, so far, achieved very little in reducing its greenhouse-gas emissions. Although total emissions right now are slightly down from a peak in 2005, both gross and net emissions (the latter after subtracting offsets such as tree-planting) have changed little this century.
The government’s announcement in late May that it would subsidise $140 million of a new $300m electric arc furnace at NZ Steel’s Glenbrook mill may help some. It claimed this alone will contribute an estimated 5.3% of the reductions needed under the country’s second emissions budget (2026-2030).
But climate scientist Jim Renwick is much more ambitious for us. His new book champions New Zealand leading the way in the race to zero-carbon emissions, mostly because of our size and because we’re “super well endowed” with renewable resources. We could inspire the rest of the world, he believes.
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But given our gross emissions contributed just 0.17% of the world’s total, what’s the point of us leading the way? Renwick thinks there could be a first-mover advantage, and we could perhaps sell green technology we develop to other countries.
“So, using our smarts here, and exporting those smarts to other countries, is definitely a way to leverage our own pretty puny emissions reductions to produce much bigger emissions reductions in much bigger economies.”
As for the rest of the world, Renwick has an even more ambitious view: broadly speaking, he is advocating we end the global addiction to fossil fuels by remaking the entire global economy.
Is he saying that to do one massive thing – stop climate change – we need to do another massive thing first, change how the world economy works?
“Am I just in an ivory tower? Well, I wonder about that myself. Look, the global economy has developed organically over centuries, but it’s just a human construction. There’s no law of nature that says we have to run our economy in a particular way. The good news is reconfiguring the global economy is a really important part of fighting climate change.”
His optimism is infectious. But is he really as optimistic as he sounds? “I’m optimistic because we know in great detail what the problem is and how to fix it,” he says. “But I’m pessimistic in terms of the urgency to fix the problem by policymakers around the world.
“We can still take action fast enough to avoid the worst consequences of climate change, and that keeps me optimistic. There’s also an awful lot more activism these days, especially from young people. And that’s a cause for optimism, too.”
Under the Weather: A Future Forecast for New Zealand by James Renwick (HarperCollins, $39.99).
