Six months out from the challenger series, Team New Zealand are the top ranked challenger. But what does that mean? Is it time to get out the red socks and dust off the Sailing Away records or better to tread carefully following the heartbreak of 2003. Julie Ash asked international yachting journalist Andy Rice and commentators Andy Green and Peter Lester their thoughts on Team New Zealand's chances in Valencia next year.
The new boats - NZL84 and NZL92
With its slab sides, fuller bow and four spreader rig, Emirates Team New Zealand's first new boat, NZL84, is significantly different from its rivals.
Powerful downwind and capable across a range of conditions, it had set the standard by the end of the 2006 season.
But to think that Team New Zealand have a "rocketship" would be a mistake.
As shown in this year's final regatta, nothing separated Team New Zealand, Oracle and Alinghi.
And Alinghi were still racing its old, but significantly modified, boat.
Lester: "Of the new boats, NZL84 is the benchmark. It looked very well balanced and the all-round package looked the best of the new boats in Valencia.
"Their mainsails are probably about the best, their genoas are equal to the best. I think there are other teams with downwind sails that look a little sharper than New Zealand's but they can improve that.
"NZL84 is different. I think it reflects the emergence of these new young designers [Team New Zealand's Marcelino Botin and Oracle's Juan Kouyoumdjian]. Maybe we are seeing a change from the dominance of Farr, Reichel/Pugh, Vrolijk, Nelson - they are now being challenged by this group."
Rice: "Of the new boats NZL84 and Luna Rossa's ITA86 look like evolutions of the old generation of boats. The one that stands out is Oracle's [which has its mast further forward].
"In the final regatta there was nothing between Team New Zealand and Oracle.
They were nose-to-tail all the way despite the fact the boats are different.
"It has been rumoured that Oracle are a little disappointed with the performance of their new boat. Maybe they thought they'd made a small breakthrough but it hasn't really given them anything more in terms of real speed."
Past cups have shown how much teams benefit from launching their boats early to work the boat up to full potential.
Last week Team NZ launched their second boat - the first of the big three challengers to do so.
Rice: "I think their logistics and timing of getting these boats out early is very good. A big contrast to last time when they left themselves far too much to do at the end.
"They realised that last time they were a designer-led campaign. This time it is a sailor-led campaign headed by [Grant] Dalton who has made the designers pull out their finger and get the boats finished earlier.
"It seems like Dalton said to them, 'Look lads, this is all the time you've got, the boat design stops here and the sailing starts here"'.
Green: "I'd question whether some of the other teams are a little late. Six months is not a lot of time to refine two boats. Sailing those two boats in the Hauraki Gulf for two or three months will be really, really valuable for them."
The sailors
When John F. Kennedy launched the America's Cup in Rhode Island 44 years ago he acknowledged how humans have the same percentage of salt in their bodies as the sea.
"When we go back to the sea to sail or even watch sailing, we are going back to where we came from," Kennedy said.
Because New Zealand is surrounded by water French helmsman Bruno Trouble reckons Kiwis possess twice as much salt in their bodies as the average human and have a stronger bond with the ocean - hence their success in sailing.
The difficulty in the cup is that New Zealanders are prevalent in several teams, particularly Team New Zealand's fiercest rivals Alinghi and Oracle.
Lester: "The Team New Zealand crew work would have to be equal to the best. All the teams will have mechanical crewing errors - it is how well you recover from them is the key. New Zealanders have led the charge in that area in developing those contingency systems."
With little expected to separate the boats next year a lot will come down to the performance of the sailors and in particular the afterguard.
While skipper Dean Barker will always have his critics - many of whom believe top British sailor Ben Ainslie should be at the helm - his performance is this year's final regatta, which Team New Zealand won, was outstanding.
Rice: "We all had the knives out for Dean ... he really had to pull out the goods this season. He stepped up when he really needed to and delivered the goods.
"For me there are still a few question marks over him. I am not sure he has that killer instinct although I hear he is very different on board. If I had to say there was a fundamental weakness of the team this time around, it would be the unquestioned support for Dean Barker as the only racing option for helmsman. It would have made more sense to blood someone like Ben Ainslie in some of the regattas for the past couple of years. I think the Alinghi system of rotating three different helms gives them greater strength in depth."
Lester: "The decision was made early on that Barker was going to be the helmsman/skipper and Ainslie was going to be number two. After the last regatta it is looking like a pretty good decision.
"In terms of judging Barker his start percentage was pretty damn good, he put the boat in position to pass. He is very strong in that intersection at the top mark, probably the strongest - what more can you ask for.
"A lot of time has gone into the afterguard, getting their roles right. The person who has impressed me most is is strategist Ray Davies."
Team New Zealand have encouraged their sailors to compete in a variety of sailing events.
Green: "I think the way Team New Zealand are managing their sailing programme is very forward thinking. The way they are integrating TP52, Farr 40s, match racing and cup racing is giving the sailors a really good chance to be better sailors. They are going to be much sharper than some of the other teams because they have done so much more sailing ."
The campaign
When he was in Auckland for the launch of NZL92, Trouble said it was clear Team New Zealand "were on a mission".
Following the disappointment of 2003, the syndicate have gone about their work carefully and quietly and have been particularly wary of raising public expectation too soon.
The introduction of the pre-regattas - in which Team New Zealand top the challenger leaderboard - makes it hard to hide their form.
Six months out from the Louis Vuitton Cup, they have the smallest of leads over Oracle. Alinghi are still an unknown having not lined up against the challengers in a new boat.
Rice: "Team New Zealand keep to themselves. Their aloofness or isolation approach probably hasn't won them any friends but they are not there to win friends. They appear a tight-knit bunch and it would appear there is a good team spirit there."
Lester: "I like the idea of keeping it low-key but this thing could sneak up on us. Make no mistake if this group continue to develop their hardware and as a team if they can make incremental gains - we could have a situation on our hands like San Diego.
"I am a cynic but I think they are going to be there or thereabouts.
"If we look back to 2003 it would probably be beyond our wildest dream that Team New Zealand would be in the position they are where they go into the Louis Vuitton Cup as one of the favourites.
"Both people- and hardware-wise where they are now is testament to good leadership."
The campaign is very Kiwi and some say it resembles Sir Peter Blake's successful 1995 campaign.
Their base in Valencia has everything they need but is simple compared with the mansions of Alinghi, Oracle and Luna Rossa.
Green: "With the budget they have they are still one of the top teams which is a credit to them."
The syndicate is now fully funded with Dalton managing to secure the last bit of the estimated $130 million budget. But they have plenty to do before April 16 - day one of the Louis Vuitton Cup.
Rice: "For them now it taking those two boats and sailing them really hard and trying to squeeze out a few increments of boat speed. Then it will be building absolute confidence and faith in sailing those boats.
"When you look at the other challengers they have more to do than Team New Zealand technically. Oracle went out on a limb with USA87 - they have a lot more questions to answer than Team NZ."
Final impressions
Rice: "If I had to put money on a challenger it would be Team New Zealand. [They] have far less to climb and are in a position where they can polish their act. They are scoring eight or nine out of 10 in a lot of areas. For me the biggest thing is the afterguard, is the afterguard really big enough to go all the way? I don't know."
Green: "I think we will see Oracle Racing and Team New Zealand in the challenger series final. Team New Zealand will benefit from having a much stronger afterguard but Oracle will spend much more money and they may find something in doing that - so that will give them a slight advantage.
Lester: "Team New Zealand have more than a chance. Of the challengers you might say they are in the box seat. They are right where they want to be or dreamed of being and if you look back on 2003 that is a hell of an achievement."
Yachting: In bloody good trim
Emirates Team New Zealand: Adam Beashel on traveller, Chris Salthouse on Main sheet, and Dean Barker on the Helm. Picture / Chris Cameron
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