By MIKE DILLON
Two-year-olds, even in winter, can be just about the safest bets.
Which makes Danavon (No1, R4) a great prospect at Ellerslie today. For a horse who would have gone awfully close to winning last week's Champagne Stakes had he run straight in the closing stages, Danavon is not too badly off with 56.5kg in a field of mainly inexperienced horses.
There are some promising types facing Danavon, but essentially the field is down on strength from what the Cambridge youngster faced last week. He keeps going strongly in his races, which will be vital today and has apparently done very well since last week's tough race.
Sir Avion (No1, R7) is going to give it a good crack to win his second TV Guide Hurdles. There was a fair bit to like about his third to Stacey Jones in the Waikato Hurdles and he is reported to be even fitter for this race. He has real grit, loves heavy ground and with some steeplechasing background in this preparation will see out the distance better than most of the opposition.
Esprit Du Nord (No3) is relatively young as a hurdler, but he is clean leaper and sticks his races out well. Whether he has the experience to see out the 4190 in only his 10th jumps race will be told only later today, but he will be in the race for a long way and if there are any mistakes along the way by the opposition he is the one to capitalise.
They'll bring the grandstands down if Smart Hunter (No2), Golden Miller (No5) or last year's winner Gold Story (No4) can win for Ken Browne. Smart Hunter had the race won last year until Gold Story edged him out late and he might get his turn this time.
The likely favourites in the first two races Cheeko (No1, R1) and Mighty Regal (No2, R2) are fair bets, but the odds won't get you a winter holiday in Europe.
Neither will Crafty Dancer (No1, R3), but he looks a hurdler of real promise, who can be taken seriously following a fresh-up run on the flat at Hawera recently. As an early 4-year-old at the start of this season he had three hurdle starts for a win and two placings. He should be a lot more solid this preparation and what beats him should win. Lord Penn (No4) is another who shows real promise in the jumping game.
Playful Fingers (No1, R5) has a win and a placing from three starts in heavy ground, but whether she likes it quite as bad as she will strike today remains to be seen. If she manages the ground she will be very hard to beat with a 4.5kg apprentice claim, which reduces her weight to 53kg from clear topweight.
The best guide will be the two flat races which precede hers. If they indicate suiting the speed horses who can stick on she will be suited, but if the pattern of racing suggests the best prospects are the dour swoopers from the back she might struggle.
Ignore the form this campaign of Clear Advantage (No2), who has clearly needed rain-affected footing, which she is certainly going to get here. She is very smart at best. Blue Dude (No6) is the value runner.
Masterton's Jim Wallace could have an interesting day.
Albacora (No2, R8) is a real chance after two runs this campaign, which have resulted in two good seconds, the most recent of them a half-head second on heavy ground at Otaki. She finishes her races right out and that is going to prove crucial today.
It won't be easy for her though, The Chairman (No3) has plenty of potential and Jetski (No6) is no slug.
Wallace has a big chance of lifting Race 9 with Lady Alate (No9), a mare with a fair amount of ability. She has yet to win on a heavy track, but she has placed twice from three starts and has won four of her seven soft track races. She is a lot fitter for her first-up run at Otaki which followed a winter spell, and that was not a bad effort.
Oakley (No5) is worth a look after two very solid wins, the last in heavy conditions at Te Rapa. It might go against the grain, but give Creme De Honor (No4) one more chance in trifecta bets.
Plenty of chances in the last, but Interlaced (No2, R10) is good each-way value despite being well beaten here last start. His two previous runs were terrific and he deserves a winning turn. Maserati (No1) and Wartortle (No6) are strong trifecta hopes.
Racing: Youngsters look safest bets in winter
AdvertisementAdvertise with NZME.