By MIKE DILLON
A change in the Sydney weather forecast away from showers to mild weather today is good news for Danamite and bad news for fellow New Zealand star galloper Cinder Bella.
Danamite has been desperate for a very firm track for his return bout with his Canterbury Guineas victor Universal Prince in today's $460,000 Rosehill Guineas and he's got it if the weather forecasters are right.
Cinder Bella needs rain to be a chance against one of the best fields she has met in the $A350,000 Ryder Stakes.
If you fancy Danamite you are probably going to get over the odds. Better value than you imagine.
With Universal Prince backed as if unbeatable, Danamite was at 10-1 in Australia overnight. With Australians backing Universal Prince on our tote, Danamite could well be close to a $5 shot, or you could try for the 10-1 at one of the Australian betting shops.
Universal Prince is very smart, but as a back runner he is a chance to strike traffic problems in a big field at Rosehill. It is worth the risk that Danamite can stay out of trouble and reverse the Canterbury decision.
Cent Home may be value in the Ryder. He did not get the best of runs in the Australian Cup and while coming back from 2000m to 1500m would normally be a problem against this class of opposition, Cent Home is one horse who could get away with it. He has drawn handy and should be nicely placed in running.
Locally, Bel Air (No7, R9) can prove his unplaced St Leger form all wrong. He copped shuffle back at the vital stage and his run was much better than it looked. Before that effort he was the country's most exciting emerging stayer and he can get back on track today. Drama Queen (No8) and Blazing (No3) are real threats.
My Happiness (No6, R2) could not have been more impressive winning under 58kg at Ellerslie last start and dropping to 55kg allows her the chance to deal with a better field this time. She has plenty of ability, but the likes of Zespri Gold (No4) and Centamira (No2) will not make it easy for her.
Victory Smile (No5, R4) faces a useful field, but not one as good as Blanchard, who narrowly beat him last start. He has improved and looks good each-way value. The Wok (No3) is the quick improver.
Krystal Klear (No1, R7) is another each-way value bet on the programme, with Upsen Downs (No3) and Sparklehorse (No6) the dangers and Acadamie Francaise (No5, R10) has the ability to step out of maidens and win in the next class up.
The Japan/NZ International Trophy is a nightmare betting race. Is Platonic back to her best? Can St Cecile still be as impressive as winning at Te Aroha even though she almost certainly won't be able to lead this time? Will the lack of rain count against O'Malleys Boy and Party Queen? Platonic (N6, R8) is so good at best she is worth another try and so is Soap Opera (No5) each way. The upsetter is Call Minder (No8).
Racing: Weather change benefit for Danamite
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