By MIKE DILLON
Tactics win group one races and you won't see a more tactical race for the rest of the year than Lance O'Sullivan, Michael Walker and Noel Harris will turn on in today's $120,000 Ford Ellerslie Sires Produce.
The trio will have sore necks from looking sideways at each other aboard Flying Babe, Vinaka and San Luis in a race which will settle a lot of arguments on who is the country's best juvenile.
The barrier draw makes it interesting - Flying Babe (No8), Vinaka (No9), San Luis (No1) - with Flying Babe hugely adaptable for such a speed machine.
There is probably nothing between these three in actual talent, the difference may end up being Flying Babe's almost unbelievable mental attitude.
It's been well reported that the Takanini filly did not look to be travelling like a winner - not even to Lance O'Sullivan - on the home turn last Saturday, but she raced away to win by two and a half lengths.
That ability to lift may be significant at the end of her first step up to 1400m.
It would normally be a disadvantage to come in against two horses of the class of San Luis and Vinaka who have already tried 1400m, but Flying Babe's attitude will overcome that.
This will be one of the races of the season, both for talent and tactics.
The scenario for winning the Ford 2YO Championship is fascinating.
Vinaka is on 43 points and San Luis 36.
* If Vinaka wins or finishes ahead of San Luis, he wins the title.
* If San Luis wins and Vinaka runs second-eighth, San Luis wins the title.
* If San Luis runs second and Vinaka third, Vinaka wins the title.
* If San Luis runs second and Vinaka fourth, Vinaka takes the title.
* If San Luis runs second and Vinaka fifth, Vinaka wins on countback (three series wins to two).
* If San Luis runs second and Vinaka sixth -eighth, San Luis wins the title.
* If San Luis runs third-eighth, Vinaka wins the title.
You will have to wait for the bet of the day, Citi Habit (No6, R10). Trainer Bruce Marsh declared the 1300m too short for Citi Habit at Awapuni last start and he was right on the money, but the close fourth he came up with was one of the runs of the day. Citi Habit steps up to 1600m this time and despite possibly being a bit better on left-handed tracks at the moment, rates a big chance. Scheherezade (No5) looks a value inclusion for the trifecta.
Love Song (No1, R3) was pipped right on the line here last week and gets her chance to put her name in the frame again.
Take no notice of the 57.5kg, it is only 1.5kg above the minimum and while for a mare you would like to see something closer to 53kg, it should not be that which beats her.
Society Beau (No6, R7) is going to be short on odds after two runaway wins in two starts, but in Kakaho (No1) he faces by far the toughest opponent so far. Kakaho was caught in the last couple of bounds when favourite here last week, but the easy track probably did not help his cause. The quinella with these two, although probably short on odds, might be the best attack.
For a while Beacon (No6, R9) looked as though he was going to win the Easter and although he was swamped back to fifth, he was still less than two lengths from Magic Winner. That was only his second start following a break and it is fair to expect he will be a fitter horse for today, where he has a nice weight at 53.5kg. Trigger (No8) is stepping up in class, but there was a lot to like about the way he grabbed his stablemate Kakaho last weekend when he was expected to be fitter for the run.
There is no way you can get money off Sunline in today's $A400,000 All Aged Stakes. The win odds are impossible and with only six opponents the chance of a half decent trifecta look remote in the extreme. Just watch and enjoy and if she wins, marvel at her constitution going Melbourne, Auckland, Hong Kong, Auckland, Sydney, Auckland, Dubai, Melbourne then Sydney in one campaign.
Might And Power's half brother Matter Of Honour can run a big race fresh in the Hall Mark Stakes at Randwick. Paul Perry is likely to have him tuned to run a big one fresh and he is the type to cope.
Racing: Tactics will win race of the year
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