By MIKE DILLON
Jaiapeno became a better bet at Avondale this afternoon with the scratching yesterday of local runner Sir Albert.
There are still class horses starting against Jaiapeno today, but at the weights Sir Albert looked the danger.
With first-time rider Sarah Kelly in the saddle, Jaiapeno will claim a full 4.5kg apprentice allowance from his 53.5kg handicap and the 49kg is the key to the race.
Purely on form Life Of Riley looks the danger, but with little between him and Jaiapeno last start it will be a major surprise if he can turn that result around being 5kg worse off this time.
A first-time rider can get into little trouble on Jaiapeno, a horse who goes forward in his races and attacks early.
Life Of Riley is a horse of quality and despite his weight rates highly. Kate Lorimar is a big threat.
Tacit Approval (No1, R1) is going to take beating in the highweight. He has had only three starts and impressed with his eight and a half length maiden win at Te Awamutu. He backed up with an erratic second at Te Rapa last start, but he should have learned something and has since trained on well. Le Maroochydore (No2) ran the race of a big improver last start.
Dance Class (No1, R2) got into trouble at Tauranga last start and did really well to finish second to smart winner Fulla Vink. She is backing up quickly, but is a bit better than her overall record shows and will take plenty of beating here. Amorone (No2) won well in the wet at Te Awamutu last start and the trackwork of Finbar Reidy (No3) this week has been fabulous.
The key to the jumpers flat is that Money Machine (No3, R3) is coming back from a restricted handicap to jumpers' class. He won a similar race by a widening margin three starts back and even at his weight will take beating this time. Glendara (No1) may not be quite as good as he was a season or so back, but he is still talented and can feature.
It may pay to forgive Convincing (No1, R4) her failure at Ruakaka last start. She looked good on wet tracks before that and this looks a race she can win. She has drawn in handy and should get the run of the race. Lenny Lights (No2) has worked well since his last-start second to Millennial on this track.
Millnorm (No5, R5) is not a horse you'd put the mortgage money on, but he has ability in this class and his trackwork has suggested he is capable of ripping a race off very soon. He let punters down when beaten favourite over 1600m at Ellerslie last start, but looks better suited over this 2000m distance at this point of his preparation. There are plenty of chances in this race and it would it would be smart to include Mick Bailey (No3), Rule The Waves (No2) and Darth Vader (No1) in multiple bets.
Indiarma (No2, R6) went a lot better race last time that the formline might seem on paper. The sixth was less than two lengths from the winner in a fair bit stronger field than this and from the No 2 draw he should be in the race for the whole way.
If Creme De Honor (No1, R7) does not win today you probably have to make the case he has not come up as well as last winter and that is despite his 58kg topweight. There was a lot to like about his second to Likely Story a Ellerslie last start under 57.5kg and does not have one of his ability to match here. He is as good as any of the metric milers around. Watch for an improved run from Mr McGerkle (No2). His three runs this time in have him fitter and he rates highly as the winner of this race last year.
Plain Jill (No1, R9) has turned in two solid runs since winning at Te Rapa three starts back and looks a strong chance to win. She gets to the line well and that will be important late in programme today. Orbiting (No3) finishes well and looks a real threat.
The last looks an even race, but Hereshecomes (No2, R10) has ability and is a good each-way bet.
Racing: Sir Albert's scratching removes huge threat to Jaiapeno victory
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