By MIKE DILLON
For the Keith Hawtin-Graeme Rogerson stable to come from behind the leaders and lift the New Zealand Trainers' Premiership they probably have to win the richest flat race in New Zealand today.
And to do it class juvenile filly Skip's Fancy will have to overcome a nightmare barrier draw in what will be a speed race in the $35,000 Westbury Stud Breeders Stakes at Ruakaka.
For sheer speed, the almost certain favourite Egyptian Raine (No9, R7) has it on her opposition, but Skip's Fancy (No12) is all class and if she has any luck at all in coming over from barrier No14 she can make a real race of it with the favourite.
Keith Hawtin is devastated with the stable's barrier draw luck in the race it won last year with Clear Advantage, but is delighted with the way Skip's Fancy has trained on since her ridiculously easy first-up win at Ruakaka last month.
"I really thought she'd win until the draw," said Hawtin yesterday. "I know she didn't beat much, but I was impressed with her last-start win."
Egyptian Raine will lead early and what eventuates when Skip's Fancy comes across will be interesting. Only smart youngsters win four straight regardless of the class and Rainman (No5) has a resolute finish which could prove vital if the two fillies burn themselves in a duel.
The Hawtin/Rogerson stable can claw back one of the three wins Paul O'Sullivan's stable has on it with Ballet Queen (No2, R1) in the opener. The Gold Brose filly was beaten favourite when she made her debut on this track at the last meeting, but it was a solid effort and she should be ready to go one better. Arc Angel (No3) has had to battle wide draws in her last two starts.
There was enough to like about River Chant's (No6, R2) maiden win here last month to suggest she can make it two on end. Opera Rose (No8) is better than her last-start failure says.
The wide barrier the Hawtin/Rogerson runner Beech Bonanza (No3, R4) has can help beat him, but this is not a strong field of maidens and he could get away with it. He covered a bit of ground when a nice second here last start.
Quite a few chances in Race 5, but the local Jetski (No8) has done enough in this preparation to say he's a fine each-way bet on his home track, where he has already been a winner. He is racing out of his class, but he has enough to just about overcome that.
Energetic Dancer (No2) and Harvard Honor (No1) are chances in an even field.
Another Donna Logan-trained runner, Rock Star (No1, R6) makes a fair bit of appeal. He should be a lot fitter for his third on this track last start after a five-month break. He has the perfect barrier draw this time and should appreciate the step up to 1600m. Te Atatu Playboy (No6) did not pull it off for punters when made favourite for his Te Rapa debut, but his second from the tail of the field was impressive and suggested he won't be in maidens long.
Likely Story (No6, R8) is one of the better bets. He has freshened since failing at Tauranga last month and should appreciate the surface at Ruakaka, which suits horses who need just the firmness off the footing. The wide barrier is no help, but Likely Story can race forward if necessary and still kick on hard in the closing stages. There is any amount of scope for an upset and Gencay (No11) may not be the worst of those chances.
Jaiapeno (No7, R9) and Life Of Riley (No1) were beaten out of sight in the sprint at Avondale two weeks ago, but they can be the ones to fight out the finish of this. Forget Life Of Riley raced that day, he is much better placed here weightwise and with the prospect of better footing, the only problem being his wide barrier. He has the speed to overcome that, particularly with a big apprentice allowance. A sticky track is the only logical explanation for Jaiapeno's shocker at Avondale, but you have to forgive him that one run and include him in at least the multiple bets. Ma Danseuse (No5) is underrated an this looks a nice race for her.
Racing: Premiership hopes may ride on Skip's Fancy
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