By MIKE DILLON
If 24 hours is a long time in politics, two months is four lifetimes in a trainers' racing premiership.
And with a remarkable 49, 48, 47, 46, 45, result at the top of the premiership with nine weeks to go, this could prove to be a six-lifetime competition.
That is particularly so as current leader Colin Jillings has declared he has no chance to win.
But that is perhaps typical of Jillings, senior partner with Richard Yuill, a combination which got to 49 wins with Paolino's victory in the last at Ellerslie on Saturday.
There might be an element of truth in what Jillings says - the stable has few true winter runners.
But that won't stop perhaps New Zealand's most respected stable getting in there and fighting it out right to the line.
Current favourite is probably the Hamilton partnership of Graeme Rogerson and Keith Hawtin.
Their stable came from well off the pace at this time last year to take the 2000-2001 title.
"We have got a decent line-up of horses who we think are chances to be competitive," said Keith Hawtin yesterday.
Colin Jillings and Richard Yuill,
Takanini. 49 wins.
"We have just got no chance.
"We have got 19 horses in full work, but six of those are yearlings being broken in.
"How can you compete with the Graeme Rogerson/Keith Hawtin team with 100 horses.
"We'll run out of ammunition."
Impressive weekend winner Paolino will be kept going. She handled the heavy conditions well and should add to the stable score in the next six weeks.
"Trigger is good for a couple of competitive races in the next eight weeks and Pyramus will have one more before be goes out for a spell," said Jillings.
Perennial good performer Tangarakau is due to start at Ellerslie on Saturday.
"But he's got 5kg topweight," says Jillings.
"I'm not sure when he'll have his next hurdle race. He's not ready for it yet."
Graeme Rogerson and Keith Hawtin,
Tuhikaramea. 48 wins.
Produced 19 winners in the last two months of last season to take the premiership from well off the pace.
"We figure we've got 20, perhaps 25 horses, who can race in the next eight weeks," says Hawtin, "but they've still got to win races and that's the tough bit.
"Perhaps we're a fair bet to win it again, but I personally think Brian Anderton is a big chance, because he's got a big team of both flat and jumping horses."
Hawtin says the stable can probably rely for a win by Marionetta and St Petrus.
"St Petrus probably has a flat win or two left in him, but he is due to resurrect his hurdling career. Then there is Gu Li and Magic Force is a chance over the hurdles."
Paul O'Sullivan,
Matamata. 47 wins.
Paul O'Sullivan was overseas and brother Lance gave the quotes for the stable, which has traditionally fallen away with winners as winter sets in.
"We've got nothing to rely on in terms of numbers," said O'Sullivan, up a tree pruning branches last night when we called him.
"There are only bits and pieces there - if we won three races it would be a big effort.
"I think we've got 26 in work and probably half of them are yearlings.
"The likes of Keith Hawtin and Graeme Rogerson are gong to be hard to beat along with Brian Anderton and I still give Colin Jillings and Richard Yuill a chance."
Brian and Shane Anderton,
Taieri. 46 wins.
It would be a major effort for a South Island stable to win, but it would come as no great shock to Brian Anderton to win his first premiership.
"I'm not a great numbers and statistics person, but we broke in 27 yearlings last season and at the start of this season I said if we were ever going to win a premiership it would probably be this time.
"Until now we've always finished with about 30 or 40 winners.
'We've nominated 22 horses for Wingatui on Sunday and while they won't all run, we'll probably end up with about 16 starters.
"We've got a few promising jumpers which helps."
Bruce Marsh,
Awapuni/Woodville. 45 wins.
Bruce Marsh's attention is at the Queensland winter racing carnival, but he says he has several team members capable of winning races.
"Winners from my stable are generally few at this time of year, but we have some that can win during the next eight weeks."
Racing: Premiership going down to the wire
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