"They will fly along and I think he [Not An Option] might get off them a bit and be charging late but the question might be whether we are giving them too much of a start."
While Ayrton looks a serious horse, Not An Option is nearing $5 a place in many markets and if the best version of him turns up that could represent great value.
His fellow Waikato gallopers Tiptronic and Two Illicit look set to be suited by the better track conditions at Eagle Farm when they contest the Lord Mayor's Cup but with Kiwi gallopers having their leanest autumn in years in Australia there are big odds available for all the New Zealand reps.
Although Pike isn't bubbling with confidence because of the class of Not An Option's opposition, he expects close to a winning run from Dawn Parade in race three at Ellerslie today.
The Ellerslie track was rated a dead6 yesterday, with plenty of northern trainers hoping it stays in that range so they can eke out another run before the heavy winter tracks.
"I think the better track is ideal for him," says Pike of Dawn Parade (R3, No3). "He is quick so the better track suits but the one thing he won't be doing is going forward. He is still very mentally immature and we went forward on him two starts ago and he didn't handle it.
"So he will drop out and come with one run but in a small field I think he can still win."
Pike's confidence has already been reflected in the market, with Dawn Parade backed in from $4.60 to $3.60.
The Cambridge trainer expects good things from Bentayga (R9, No3) who didn't handle a heavy track at Rotorua last start while stablemate London Bound (R7, No13) needs only to settle better mid-race to be a chance.
The latter is a former Clayton Chipperfield-trained galloper who joined Pike when Chipperfield stopped training last month and the big gun of his team, Catalyst, joins Pike's stable on Monday.
"He has been on the water walker at Lyndhurst Farm for over a month, had a few vet inspections and he is good to go," says Pike.
"So he will start work back at the stable on Monday and his first couple of aims will be the Foxbridge at Te Rapa and then the first leg of the triple crown at Hastings.
"We will keep him here and make sure he is flying before we plan anything in Australia."