By MIKE DILLON
There are a couple of things against Millennium at Avondale today, but not enough of them.
Being fresh from a spell and having 57kg topweight as a 3-year-old against older horses would be enough to put most horses in danger, but Millennium's class will go close to overcoming those factors in the $9000 Mondiale Freight Services 1200.
Helping will be a rain-affected track.
The Avondale Jockey Club had not done a track reading since Wednesday, when it was 3.1 and easy, but yesterday, after overnight showers, the course staff rated it at about that same level, which is good news for the Millennium camp.
In the spring Millennium looked as good as any of the 3-year-olds, achieving an unheard of feat by winning the Guineas at Ellerslie at only his second race start.
Firm tracks caught up with him and today is his first start since.
Locally trained Llenda Crown (No3, R8) looks a good prospect at Avondale. He has shown he has been generally underrated and, freshened slightly since his good fourth to Lord Romar at Ellerslie, where a slow start hampered him badly, he looks well placed except for the worry of an outside barrier.
Krissy Deming (No7) looks the value runner in that race.
Millennium's stablemate Tantamount (No6, R6) jumps up to open class for the first time, but that may not be enough to stop her winning run. If you doubt that, pull out the video of her beating the racing pattern by coming from last on the home to win at Te Aroha last start. It was a startling performance.
The class horse of the field is Creme De Honor (No2), who will be well suited if the track comes up easy this morning.
Difficult to imagine them turning the winning form around on locally-trained Egyptian Raine (No1, R2). The way she scooted away from the opposition to win at Counties was impressive. Okay, this is a better field, but she would have beaten this lot at Counties. She has only to reproduce that to win.
The best value bet could be Risky Business (No3, R7). He was good enough to run a place in the Derby Trial in December and this is his first start since failing in the Derby. This is maiden class and he will find it a lot easier.
Yesterday trainer Wayne Marshment was undecided whether to start Centre Crest (No1, R8) at Manawatu. If he does, the remarkable sprinter can win, despite the 58kg topweight, which has upset Marshment all week, and the fact he has not raced since November. You can argue weights forever, but Centre Crest has a wonderful record and can still win. He is a fresh-up freak - his nine starts in that condition have produced six wins and two placings. The only warning is he needs firm ground so watch that the predicted showers overnight did not dampen the track.
Vinaka (No1, R7) has done more than enough to suggest he is the one to beat in the $120,000 Ford Sires Produce. He can do it at both ends of his races, often necessary in a race like this over 1400m. Trainer Jim Gibbs is delighted with Vinaka's progress and that should be enough. You get the feeling the trifecta could be tricky, but Elfonze (No7) is a must for the placings.
Sydney's Golden Slipper Stakes is a great race to watch and at $A2.5 million a great race to win as an owner, but as a punting vehicle I rate it the worst race of the season. Let's be honest, it's a stockcar race and why wouldn't it be over 1200m for that money. Jockeys don't put their hands out to pass and don't say excuse me - there simply isn't time. What about last year when the winner Belle Du Jour lost seven-plus lengths at the start and basically got the money because she was out of trouble at the back of the field. Watch it, but invest at your peril.
Have a crack instead at the trifecta in the $A1 million Mercedes Classic. Tie The Knot is probably going to win barring bad luck. This is no criticism of Shane Dye, who had a wonderful association with Tie The Knot, but Paddy Payne seems to suit his racing style perfectly. The Kiwis are the trifecta chances behind him. Kaapstad Way and Giovana look the away to go, but don't leave Showella out of the combinations.
At the weights Pherozity can make an Australian winning debut in Race 2 in Sydney. Belle Du Jour has 58kg topweight and Pherozity has only 53kg and, perhaps more importantly, is on the way up in her preparation, important when you campaign in Australia.
The barrier draw has made it awkward for Mabuz in Race 7, but he is so talented you wouldn't like to bet he couldn't make it two from two in Sydney.
Racing: Millennium to shine
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