By MICHAEL GUERIN
STOCKHOLM - There are three ways of looking at Lyell Creek's assault on the world trotting crown in the $1 million Elitlopp in Sweden on Monday.
Option one is agreeing with the consensus among many commentators and horseman from both hemispheres that the New Zealand champion has done well just to make it this far, to have overcome so many obstacles and to assume his place among the world's best.
That is the soft option.
Then there is the second way of looking at the Elitlopp.
That is adopting the attitude that to make the final after drawing the outside of the front line in the first heat would be one of the greatest achievements ever by a New Zealand trotter.
To make the final, run two hours after the heat, Lyell Creek will have to give some of the world's best trotters a start and a beating on their home track just weeks after deteriorating to the worst physical shape of his racing career.
In those circumstances, reaching the final would be the performance of a true New Zealand champion.
That is the realistic option.
Then there is option three.
That involves forgetting the 40-hour flight from New Zealand. Overlooking the new sulky, a huge change of diet and trying not to think about the fact the Elitliopp will probably be won in a time over two seconds faster than Lyell Creek has ever trotted before.
Those who subscribe to the third way of looking at the Elitlopp have no time for excuses, they believe Lyell Creek is a champion and therefore virtually nothing is beyond him.
That is the hard, uncompromising, almost impossible option. But it is also the way Tim and Anthony Butt are looking at the Elitlopp.
The training (Tim) and driving (Anthony) brothers started this week with that nice, comfortable realistic option two firmly lodged in their minds.
Their confidence had taken a knock after Lyell Creek's fifth in the Oslo Grand Prix two weeks ago. They knew the champ was below his best because of his loss of condition and then when he drew barrier eight they started to think maybe making the final was the best they could hope for.
But as this week progressed Lyell Creek picked himself off the canvas, dusted himself off and started to look like the harness hero New Zealanders have come to know.
The old cocky mannerisms are back, the pulling in trackwork, the bossiness.
Also back is most of the muscle mass which had wasted away before Oslo.
Lyell Creek is starting to be himself again and now the Butt brothers are firmly option-three sort of guys.
"Really we came here to win the Elitlopp and that is what we are going to try to do," Tim Butt said.
"I know it is more realistic thinking that Lyell will have done a great job just to have made the final and maybe we should be happy with that, knowing we can come back next year with a horse better acclimatised to this sort of racing.
"But you don't get to be the world champion aiming for the bottom, you get there by aiming for the top.
"Sure, we have a lot against us compared with the local horses who have been there and done that, but we knew that before we came.
"They might beat us, but we are going to go down fighting because Lyell deserves his crack and he has never let us down before.
"What sort of blokes would we be if we gave up on him winning before the race."
The confidence in the Butt camp has not only been boosted by Lyell Creek's return to near-peak physical well-being, but by the respect he is being shown in Sweden.
He is third favourite for his heat, to be run just after midnight on Monday (NZT) and would be even closer to the favourites in the betting but for his poor draw.
The heat looks certain to be led by Victory Tilly, the defending Elitlopp champion and the favourite to defend his crown.
He could be challenged early for the lead by Not A Spacecase, who is an unbelievably fast beginner for a trotter, and even if Victory Tilly does hold the lead then he could be challenged by local iron horse Etain Royal.
The Butt camp are hoping these early fireworks will leave their opponents vulnerable at the 400m mark and Lyell Creek's bottomless stamina will path his way into the final.
"It will mean a change of tactics from what we are used to at home," Butt said.
"But there is no way we can simply attack in this class of race over a short trip. We know he can finish his races off fast when saved for one run and I guess we will find out this weekend just how fast."
A major disadvantage for Lyell Creek will be the Swedish sulkies, which are shorter but much wider than those used in New Zealand.
That means when he undoubtedly has to come three wide at some stage he is going to be the equivalent of four wide in New Zealand and this is on a relatively tight track (similar to Cambridge but not as well banked).
With those inside him trotting near world record times, Lyell Creek is going to know he has been to the races.
If, no make that when, he makes it into the final he will have two hours to cool down, then warm up again and get ready for the main event.
That is where his first heat finishing position will be crucial because the connections of the heat winners get first choice of barriers for the final.
Those second in the heats get second choice and so on, meaning that if Lyell Creek is to finish third in his heat the best he can hope to draw in the final will be barrier five or six. Once again that will mean giving the best trotters in the world a head start, then trying to cover extra ground and finish over the top of them.
All this when not quite at his peak.
To win the final, Lyell Creek will need a miracle because he won't simply have to be the best horse in the world, he will have to be at least two or three lengths better than any trotter on earth.
Maybe option two is the most realistic way of looking at the Elitlopp. But you don't travel 20,000km to settle for option two.
Tim and Anthony Butt are living a dream and they don't want to wake up. Not for at least another day.
Ten things you need to know
* The race will be screen live on Trackside with coverage starting at 2.45 am Monday, showing replays of the heats followed by the final.
* The heats will be run over a mobile 1609m, with all eight starters across the front line on the 1000m Solvalla track.
* The first four home in each heat will qualify for the million-dollar final, with the draw being made an hour before the race.
* Lyell Creek's heat draw of barrier eight has been successful only once in 12 heats in the past six years and it took trotting's greatest ever stakes earner, Moni Make, to win from there.
* While the New Zealand TAB is not betting on the race, you can bet on the heats and the final with Centrebet in Australia.
* Lyell Creek is paying $1.80 to make the final and $9 to win it. Because of his draw he is paying $10 to win his heat.
* The longest priced winner of the Elitlopp since 1970 paid just $6.30.
In that time 20 winners have started at $2.80 or shorter.
* Lyell Creek is only the fourth Australasian trotter to contest the Elitlopp series, the last being Special Force two years ago. He finished a distant seventh in his heat.
* The race record for the Elitlopp is a staggering 1:53.2, which is 2.4s inside Lyell Creek's Australasian race record.
* Solvalla officials are expecting a record crowd, with as many as 40,000 spectators on the track. They will turn over $15 million.
Links:
Centrebet
Racing: Lyell Creek ready to upset the odds in Sweden
AdvertisementAdvertise with NZME.