Almost all Copy That’s major wins, including his two NZ Cups and the $1m Race, were lead-all-the-way jobs, and while he proved himself a potent swooper three times when winning off big handicaps late last year, he would be at his most scary if able to roll to the lead.
As one of the clear top two pacers in the country, with Self Assured, Copy That in front would cop no pressure and Self Assured and co would struggle to catch him. But even his trainer Ray Green speculates that may not be how this Cup unfolds.
“I wouldn’t be surprised if David [Butcher] wanted to stay in front because Kango is right at his peak and with my horse having not raced for a month I don’t want him overdriven early,” says Green.
Green is adamant Copy That is spot on for tonight and can win coming from off the speed but there must be at least some questions raised by tonight being 3200m after a month without racing or trialling.
That brings in favourite Self Assured, who co-trainer Mark Purdon says will be a better horse than he was last Friday, when he ran up to beat Kango but blew out at the 100m mark.
“His work this week suggests he is better, he felt as good as he did this week last year when he worked on Wednesday,” says Purdon.
Self Assured bolted away with the Cup last year and could become the first horse to win three Auckland Cups; remarkable considering the race dates back to 1890.
If Kango reaches the lead early and stays there, Self Assured becomes the horse to beat because he would seem more likely than Copy That to be on the markers pegs and closer to the speed.
Challenge deep but Mountain on a high
Muscle Mountain missed the final lead-up race to tonight’s $180,000 Rowe Cup, but that could be the best thing to happen to him.
The giant trotter will start odds-on in the Group 1 after a dominant autumn and as clearly the best trotter in the country only bad luck, manners or below-par fitness would seem his greatest dangers tonight.
Although he hasn’t raced for a month, trainers Greg and Nina Hope are certain fitness isn’t a concern after Muscle Mountain broke the track record for a trotter when working at rival trainer John Dickie’s property last week.
“He worked very well and he actually races well fresh so we are really happy with where it is at,” says Nina Hope.
Muscle Mountain accompanied stablemate Eurokash to the races at Alexandra Park last Friday and looked fit and ready for tonight’s assignment.
Eurokash proved a great substitute, winning the Anzac Cup but not before three false starts and Muscle Mountain is still not foolproof from a stand.
Muscle Mountain has won 28 of his 42 starts but only half of his 14 standing starts and has started off the front line of a standing start race in a full field only once in the last 18 months, when he finished second to Sundees Son in a memorable Dominion at Addington in December.
Being big, he probably won’t enjoy being sandwiched between horses at barrier four, and won’t be suited by a repeat of the farcical scenes at the start of the Anzac Cup.
That more than any rival would pose the greatest threat.