By MIKE DILLON
Tony Cole is waiting for something to go wrong.
Royal Ways' $100,000 Mercedes Great Northern campaign is going just too well.
It is one of those cases when you just know your good fortune is running too far ahead of the law of averages. That can be dangerous coming up to your target for the year.
"I can't believe it," said trainer Cole after Royal Ways surprised him with his sharpness to win the $20,000 Amarula Cream Steeplechase at Ellerslie on Saturday.
Cole is confident Royal Ways can do the impossible by winning back-to-back Mercedes Great Northerns, but was equally sure the outstanding 'chaser would find Saturday's 4150m too short and the track too firm.
"I thought he would be found flat in this footing. Reb's Shu is a good horse and to beat him under these conditions and to do it easily shows how well Royal Ways is," said Cole.
Cole and his partners set Royal Ways for the Mercedes immediately after winning last June.
Since January 1 when Royal Ways rejoined his stable after a spell, things have been going too well.
"When he came back to me he'd done six weeks pre-training and was almost ready to race. I had to back off him, he was too forward."
Before winning last year's feature Royal Ways was concussed after crashing at Paeroa and Cole had to pressure-cook his final lead-up.
"This year it's just the opposite. He's ahead of the game plan.
"In fact, he's so well I gave him two days off this week after racing at Te Rapa last week. I've never done that with a jumper before.
"I didn't gallop him at speed at any stage this week - this race was his track gallop."
The ease with which Royal Ways picked up Reb's Shu in the run from the last fence was remarkable.
With that extra bit of fitness, the longer distance and probably a softer track, Royal Ways is unquestionably the horse to beat next Monday.
But Cole knows there are seven days during which the law of averages can finally catch up with him.
Meanwhile, rival trainer Grant Shaw might be devastated over the breakdown of Bob Dobalino going into the Mercedes Great Northern, but he has one piece of satisfaction to hold onto.
When Shaw first took on the former South Island rogue, he called jockey Chris Johnson, who had done a lot of work on the horse.
"When I called Chris his partner answered the phone. I asked a couple of questions about the horse's jumping and I heard him yell out in the background: 'That horse will never win a steeplechase.'"
Chris Johnson did not make too many mistakes on top of a horse or predicting one's future.
Except on this occasion.
Racing: Good luck going too well
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