By MICHAEL GUERIN
Of all the emotions that fuel racing, hope is the most enduring.
Hope that your deformed yearling in the back paddock may someday make a racehorse. Hope that you will win back all your losses for the day by striking the next trifecta with your last $2. Hope you may actually get the first leg of Pick Six.
In the garden of racing, hope is the roses among the manure.
But not tonight. Because the Rowe Cup is a hope-free zone. Hope, RIP, is officially dead.
For the trainers and drivers sentenced to taking on Lyell Creek in the $100,000 Rowe Cup, the only good news is that it will at least be his last race in New Zealand.
These horsemen are hardened professionals who know you never show your hand too early. The problem is, Lyell Creek's hand is all aces.
Here are the facts:-
Lyell Creek is New Zealand's greatest ever trotter and our first trotting millionaire.
He has won 32 of his 35 starts and has only been beaten once in over two years.
He has never been beaten at Alexandra Park.
Two starts ago be gave tonight's second favourite Last Sunset a 50m start and beat him by 11 metres. That means he was 61m superior to him. Tonight he only has to give his rivals a 15m start.
He has won 11 group one races from 12 attempts. He galloped but still ran second in the other.
Lyell Creek thrashed his key opponents last week and his trainer Tim Butt expects him to be better tonight.
That doesn't paint a very pretty picture for the other nine horses or their drivers.
But surely somewhere hope must survive. Maybe just a little.
How about Mark Purdon? He knows all about winning and has the second and third favourites in Last Sunset and Sundon's Way.
"Unless Lyell Creek galloped we wouldn't expect to beat him," said Purdon.
"I mean, he gave Last Sunset 50m in Melbourne and beat him and this time the difference is only 15m.
"I think Sundon's Way will be the big improver on last week and I would favour him the most of my pair but he has had plenty of chances to beat Lyell Creek and hasn't done it.
"I am not expecting that to change here."
Not a great deal of hope there.
Next stop Barry Purdon, whose stable trotting star Mountain Gold has pushed Lyell Creek close in the past.
"I think he will be better than last week and it is good for a horse like him to be off the front. "But beating Lyell Creek, that would take a pretty big effort. It is hard to see it happening."
And those are the two men behind the only realistic winning hopes outside Lyell Creek.
But all these horses have earned their Rowe Cup start and all their drivers have earned their right to have say.
So what chance do you have of beating Lyell Creek?
Don Dwyer (Thomas Brydon): "I would need a miracle. I saw Maori's Idol in Australia years ago and never thought I would see one as good. I have now."
David Butcher (Kipper Dee): "What would it take for us to beat Lyell Creek? Something incredible, maybe like a car getting loose on the track during the race. But seriously, Kipper is a good stayer but Lyell Creek is a champion."
Colin De Filippi (Fleur's Invasion): "He is not beatable."
James Stormont (Cordon Rouge): "The only way Lyell Creek will be beaten is if he gets interfered with."
Stephen Doody (In Shot): "We would need a miracle."
Brent Mangos (Game Bid): "I suppose if there was an accident he could get beaten. But really he will just be far too good."
Miracles, stray cars and accidents ...
Hope didn't stand a chance.
Racing: Farewell Freak and goodbye to all hope
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