By MICHAEL GUERIN
Tactics and times will dictate whether Agua Caliente can return with a win at Alexandra Park tonight.
The enigmatic open class pacer stands head and shoulders above his rivals in tonight's Cole-N-Co Apparel feature but has not raced since the New Zealand Cup carnival in November.
Which will make him extremely vulnerable from a 55m handicap.
Pacers starting from 55m handicaps are virtually unheard of, winning fresh up off such a mark requires something special.
"It all comes down to times," said Agua Caliente's trainer Peter Wolfenden.
"If they go very fast off the front then he will have to run a record to win and I don't think he can do that fresh. He is fit enough after three trials but no matter how good horses are you can't expect him to run their best times without racing under their belt.
"I am not saying he can't win because he is the best horse there, but it will be tough."
Tonight's 2700m event has a class four front and races of that grade are usually won in around 3:25 or less at Alexandra Park. For Agua Caliente to win he is going to have to give the 3:21 barrier and Brocketsbrae's national record a nudge.
In his favour is the small field and the fact most of the starters will be off handicaps, so he should at least get a drag into the race. And being alone on the 55m handicap should assist Agua Caliente to step away cleanly, a problem which has dogged him throughout his erratic career.
Agua Caliente warmed up for tonight by dead heating with Hunka Hickling at the Alexandra Park workouts on Saturday after giving the race-hardened 3-year-old a 30m start.
Wolfenden and his son Glen, who drives the stable representatives, face an interesting challenge in race six tonight when 3-year-old Perspicuous jumps up in class but gets a tough draw.
The speedster has run sharp sectionals to win his last two races on this track but led and walked through the middle stages.
Tonight he will have to be driven for one sprint and Wolfenden says that could suit.
"I think he will be just as fast coming with one run at them but from this draw he will need that little bit of luck."
On a night when the Wolfendens will bring their stable star back to the race, the Hall Of Fame horseman nominates a well-tried maiden as the team's best winning hope.
"We have Ezy Dell in race four and while she has been trying to win one for a while she has the draw to go close tonight."
Tonight's other feature will be the culmination of the Junior Drivers Series.
Scott Wallis leads and has a good chance of taking the series out with Gold Bromac, who is down in class. His biggest challengers, Charles Te Tomo and Gene Robb, also have serious winning hopes in Flakes Minnie and Graelin respectively.
Racing: Erratic pacer on comeback trail
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