By MICHAEL GUERIN
David Butcher knows what he has to do to win the $90,000 Fillies Championship with Hot Shoe Shuffle at Alexandra Park tonight.
Achieving it will be the hard part.
Butcher drives the outstanding filly in the Civic Video-sponsored feature which she and Elect To Live dominate.
The pair have looked clearly the two best juvenile fillies in New Zealand this season and with the benefit of the two best draws, it is hard to envisage the winner coming from outside them.
But that still doesn't help Butcher with his main problem - getting either in front of, or the trail behind, the Neil Brady-driven Elect To Live.
Hot Shoe Shuffle has drawn barrier two, with Elect To Live starting from the ace. Hot Shoe Shuffle has more speed, Elect To Live more stamina.
If Hot Shoe Shuffle can cross her arch-rival at the start, Butcher would choose to hand up to a rival, which would put Elect To Live three back on the markers, all but ending her winning chances.
Butcher sees his next best scenario as sliding Hot Shoe Shuffle into the trail behind Elect To Live and trying to outsprint her up the passing lane, as they did at Cambridge three starts ago.
"While they would be the two most likely ways to beat Neil's filly I don't know if either of them will come off," said Butcher.
The in-form Cambridge horseman doubts Hot Shoe Shuffle has the gate speed to cross Elect To Live at the start.
"My filly gets out pretty good but I think Elect To Live will be able to hold us into the first bend. I know Neil will be pretty keen on that.
"I would also be happy to trail Elect To Live but to sneak in there they are going to need to go pretty hard early to make a gap between us and the second line horses. It will be interesting."
With neither of his ideal scenarios that likely to come off, Butcher only rates his chances of beating Elect To Live around 30 per cent.
"The way the draws have worked things are in Neil's favour. I can actually see us having to sit parked, which would make it hard to win."
Brady will only have one scenario in mind when the mobile starts to roll for the second leg of the Alexandra Park Juvenile Fillies triple crown.
He will be determined to lead and let Elect To Live set up a mile rate of around 1:58, which would effectively end the chances of those back in the field who need to come wide.
The likely early speed from barriers one and two will greatly increase the chances of Angela Jane and Kaimata Krystal, who will follow the favourites out from the inside two draws on the second line. That makes them a must for trifectas.
The only realistic winning hope outside those drawn the inside barriers looks like Oaxaca Lass.
The southern filly has a touch of class and stormed home late last week but became unbalanced on the home bend, a repeat of which would greatly reduce her chances tonight.
While the start will be crucial in the feature of the night, it will be just as important for a different reason in the main handicap pace.
Kumeu pacer Versace would be a $1.80 shot to win the third leg of Pick Six if he was certain to step cleanly from the standing start but he was slow away in his sole attempt from behind the tapes.
That was two starts ago and since then he has bolted away with a mobile sprint race then won a standing start workout at Alexandra Park last Saturday.
The Ray Norton-trained pacer looks headed for open class and it is worth taking the chance he will step tonight.
His biggest danger could come from Clifton Gold, who ranks as the worst-mannered pacer of his class in New Zealand.
He was heavily backed at Cambridge on Sunday and gave his supporters a thrill by stepping brilliantly to lead before galloping for no reason after 400m.
He is a very hard horse to love but if he paces throughout, a rarity for him, he can win tonight.
Tonight's meeting will also host the first heat of the Noel Taylor Junior Drivers series, which will be held over the next month.
Leading junior driver Scott Wallis will dominate the betting with the impressive 3-year-old Cop The Sand, who is much better than he showed when beaten after a wide trip here last start.
Racing: Early shuffle will decide sprint
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