By MICHAEL GUERIN
Two burning questions dominate tonight's $75,000 Juvenile Championships at Alexandra Park.
And if the answer to the first question is no, the answer to the second may not matter.
The most obvious question punters should be asking is whether unbeaten two-year-old Mark McGuire can get off the markers and into the race.
The Tim Butt-trained excitement Machine has drawn one on the second line, following out All Hart, who is unlikely to have the speed to win the lead.
That means Mark McGuire is a chance to get locked away on the markers, from where he would need a miracle to beat a horse like Jack Cade.
But while Butt is aware of the danger he is confident his brother Anthony, who drives Mark McGuire, can secure a clear passage.
"It is definitely the worst draw possible for a big, strong horse like him," said Tim Butt.
"But Ants is a great driver and I'm sure if anybody can get him off the markers early it will be him.
"I would be more worried in a race for older horses because at least in a juvenile race you have different levels of experience among the horses and some will be keeping up better than others early so. Hopefully that will mean the field opens up a bit.
"I will be telling Ants to drive him confidently because I rate this horse pretty highly."
So the trainer is confident the answer to the first question is yes.
Which brings us to the second question: Who is better at this early stage of their careers - Mark McGuire or Jack Cade?
The pair have only clashed once, at Cambridge last week, and there was little between them at the line or on basis of performance after Mark McGuire led and controlled the race while Jack Cade sat parked and just went down.
Jack Cade has the advantage of racing on his home track and has two more starts under his belt. He may also have more instant acceleration than Mark McGuire so looks perfectly placed to race just off the speed and unleash an explosive sprint, the ideal way to win his first 2200m test.
But Mark McGuire also has speed and looks physically stronger, backing Butt's claims that a hard 2200m would suit Mark McGuire perfectly.
If both horses get uninterrupted runs the likely winner will be the one who is front of the other at the 800m point as the variable quality of the field suggests the backmarkers won't be getting an easy cart into the race over the last lap as their lesser performed rivals start to struggle.
On that front Jack Cade, with more options from his draw, deserves to be favourite.
If the big two are to get rolled then the upsetter is likely to come from a quartet of Geoff Small-trained runners, of whom Zensational looks the best.
The other feature tonight is also a classic north-south clash as the stars of an exceptional three-year-old trotting crop face off in the $20,000 NRM Sires' Stakes Trot.
Castleton's Mission has to take the step from erratic freshman to professional athlete and was faultless when winning here last week. The Hambletonian winner will be reunited with Colin De Filippi tonight and is clearly the one to beat.
But he faces a huge stumbling block in former southerner Dependable, now with Mark Purdon.
Dependable looked a freak as a juvenile last season but that dominance has slipped away because of niggling problems. He looked back to his best with workout wins at Alexandra Park and is very capable of taking back his crown tonight.
His new stablemate Last Sunset appeals as the bet of the night and a Pick Six anchor in race nine, in which he should get the win he requires to graduate to open class after beating Mountain Gold and Sundon's Way at the workouts last Saturday.
Racing: Draw crucial in clash of juveniles
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