"We are likely to get back, especially from a widish draw, and these weight-for-age races at Ellerslie can sometimes be dominated by the leaders.
"But if they go a bit harder and the swoopers come into it she [Concert Hall] can win because she is very well and ready for the step up to 2000m."
Concert Hall has looked a stronger, more mature mare this season, winning at Group 2 and 3 levels over 1600m, while she was second to a race rival in Rock On Wood over the 1600m of the Captain Cook at Trentham three weeks ago.
She has winning form up to 2300m and a hard-run 2000m looks ideal for her now.
A frenetic tempo could also test the stamina reserves of rivals like Rock On Wood and Gino Severini but the reality for punters is the Zabeel is a true Group 1 with at least six or seven horses in play as winning chances.
Weight-for-age races at Ellerslie can be muddling, with those drawn well getting an easier time up the incline out of the straight and nobody keen to attack until the race is half over. Many favourites, including Concert Hall before, have found themselves too far back starting the slick last 600m.
So the early tactics, and whether two or three jockeys want the same prominent spots, could decide who wins the biggest prize, with Rock On Wood, Supera, In A Twinkling and Vadavar the other key chances in that order.
The Zabeel isn't the only chance for James and Wellwood to add to their black-type tally with chances in three other major races but it is Cheaperthandivorce in the $100,000 Jamieson Park Eight Carat Classic that excites them the most.
She only won a Rotorua maiden last start but did so like a filly going places, maybe even to the winner's circle after the Group 2.
"We really like her, she has class," offers James.
"It is a decent field and a step up but I wouldn't be surprised if she won."
As good as the fields are for the 10-race card, the simplest recipe for punting success may be this: keep backing Jamie Richards-trained horses in the first half of the card and you might end up so far in front you can be a bit more diverse in the second half.
Boxing Day meeting
What: One of New Zealand horse racing's biggest days of the year.
Where: Ellerslie racecourse, Auckland.
When: Saturday, first race 12.30pm.
Highlights: Zabeel Classic (Group 1), Jamieson Park Eight Carat Classic (Group 2), Hallmark Stud Sprint (listed), Shaw Wire Ropes Uncle Remus (listed), $80,000 Stella Artois Championship.
Other Boxing Day meetings: Awapuni gallops, Wingatui gallops, Westport harness.