“But as of now (mid-afternoon Friday) he is 50-50 to start.”
If Lupo Solitario pulls out of today’s race he will have a change of plans, dodging the 1600m three-year-old race on New Years Day and heading to the Auckland Guineas over 1400m on Boxing Day as his sole lead-up to the $1.5million Karaka Millions Three-Year-Old on January 27.
If he does start today is the horse to beat as he is a big three-year-old who has only been bested by unbeaten 2000 Guineas winner Crocetti in the Sarten Memorial on October 21 before being given a break by Guy.
Guy’s patience was ready to pay dividends if the feel Lupo Solitario gave rider Ryan Elliot in work is anything to go by, albeit before yesterday’s setback.
“He feels like even that three weeks he had off has helped him grow up heaps,” says Elliot.
“It feels like the penny is dropping, maybe not all the way yet, but it is happening.”
While there are doubts over Lupo Solitario starting today another of our most exciting gallops in Adam I Am is resuming at Pukekohe.
He has also only had three starts but is a year older than Lupo Solitario so takes on Rating 75 rivals over 1400m today in a heat of the Stella Artois Championship.
Trainer Glenn Old says his performance today and in the Stella Artois Final on Boxing Day could determine whether Adam I Am targets the new $1million Elsdon Park Aotearoa Classic on Karaka Millions night of hunt easier targets like the $350,000 Rangitoto Classic at Ellerslie on March 2, another new northern feature.
Old will also be partly guided by whether glamour mares Legarto and Prowess head toward the Aotearoa Classic but regardless of where Adam I Am is aimed he is going to attract attention and plenty of punter’s money as he has the strong Almanzor body but with a wicked turn of foot.
At Trentham a drying trak should suit most in a very even TAB Classic which feels even moreso after the best horse in the race Aegon drew the worst gate.
Trentham allows horses to swoop but the race doesn’t set up to be run hard throughout so those drawn wide alongside Aegon, like Desert Lightning, will be wanting some tempo injected mid-race otherwise they could face huge tasks as well as battling traffic.
All of that may leave weight-for-age newcomer Habana as the horse to beat but punters would be wise to wait until the parade to see how the quirky galloper has travelled south as a sweating up or irritated Habana makes a lot less appeal.
Weekend Racing
Saturday
** Pukekohe gallops, first race 12.20pm
** Trentham gallops, first race 12.40pm
** Geraldine harness, first race 12.10pm
Sunday
** Harness Grand Prix at Addington (8 group 1s), first race 12.20pm
** Rotorua gallops, 2.26pm
** Hong Kong International night, first race 5.25pm NZ time