Surprise Olympic medallists are rare in this era of sophisticated athlete tracking, so there's every confidence New Zealand will enjoy a successful Games in Rio next year if 2015 is anything to go by.
This country produced a good number of world champions this year, many in Olympic sports, which should translate to medals in Rio.
Sometimes a year after an Olympics is less competitive, as many athletes take a break, but they are generally more competitive the year before an Olympic Games.
High Performance Sport New Zealand have targeted 14 medals in Rio, which would break the previous best of 13 in Seoul (1988) and London (2012), but could also be considered a conservative target.
Infrastrada Sports, who have predicted the overall medal table ahead of next year's Olympics, believe New Zealand will claim 22 medals (eight golds, six silvers and eight bronzes) to finish 11th overall.