By RICHARD BOOCK
Stephen Fleming has New Zealand's only World Cup game against Scotland in the back of his mind as he eyes a possible route through to the second round.
New Zealand play their remaining group game on Monday against Canada, and need to win by as much as possible to boost their run-rate above those of fellow contenders South Africa and the West Indies.
It was much the same situation at the 1999 tournament in Britain, when Fleming's side needed to beat Scotland at Edinburgh to ensure a path through to the Super Six, a task they completed in reasonable comfort despite some questionable selections.
Gavin Larsen, arguably the best one-day international bowler at the tournament given the conditions, was dropped to make way for speedster Carl Bulfin and left-arm spinner Matt Hart received a call-up as an opening batsman.
Both decisions proved spectacularly unsuccessful, Hart being bowled second ball and Bulfin smashed for 31 off six overs, although New Zealand still did enough to get through.
Fleming remembers that pressure and is keen not to make the same mistake again.
"When it comes down to things like run-rate, there's an onus on playing the game a certain way so that you win as well as possible, and that comes with its own complications," he said this week.
"We fell into that trap against Scotland at the last tournament when we left out Gav, and it taught us that you can't afford to get too carried away with the method employed to win the game.
"The other relevant point is that it's important to be patient despite the need to win quickly, because it's easy to fall into the trap of trying to make something happen with every ball. That can play into the hands of the opposition."
New Zealand's fate in the tournament hangs heavily on the results of Sri Lanka's remaining fixtures against the West Indies and South Africa, although Bangladesh could do them a big favour tomorrow if they were to knock over Kenya.
Kenya's shock win over Sri Lanka at Nairobi on Tuesday morning opened group B up to a range of different scenarios, and also quietened a number of critics who were questioning the decision to include so many so-called "minnows" in the tournament.
Fleming, however, had some sympathy for the argument, while still accepting that the International Cricket Council were duty-bound to spread the game to all points of the compass.
"Whichever way you look at it, the smaller teams are having an influence which I guess is what the ICC want," he said.
"The result on Tuesday showed that on any given day, there's a chance for anyone to beat anyone at this level, so I think there is a place for all teams."
However, he also believed the situation needed to be closely monitored by the ICC in order to prevent the showpiece of world cricket being diluted in the interest of development.
Organisers for this tournament have not scheduled reserve days in the group phase, a decision that could yet cost the West Indies a place in the second round after their match against Bangladesh was washed out.
Fleming said reserve days would have prevented the risk of any team missing out on an almost certain win.
In terms of the remaining group B game against Canada on Monday, Fleming said the side would be concentrating on factors within their control, and hoping a good performance will carry them through to the Super Six.
"The first thing we're doing is respecting the opposition an the threat they pose, but to be honest, we're just concentrating on our own game now. We respect the Canadians but we know we have to win and win very, very well to have a chance of getting through.
"As for any other scenarios, we're just passengers now, just watching everything unfold like everyone else."
The first crunch game for New Zealand will be played tonight, when the West Indies square off against Sri Lanka in a day/night game at Cape Town. The next will be on Monday at Durban, where South Africa will play Sanath Jayasuriya's men, again under lights.
The group B phase will end with the West Indies' match against Kenya at Kimberley on Tuesday.
World Cup schedule
Points table
Cricket: Fleming wary of run-rate risks
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