LEEDS - The law of averages suggests that New Zealand opening batsman Nathan Astle is due for a substantial score in the World Cup cricket match against Zimbabwe at Headingley tomorrow night (NZ time).
Although he has struggled for runs in the tournament so far, Astle's career record hints strongly that he is about to make his presence felt in his team's opening match in the second round of the competition.
Astle has scored 17 half-centuries and six hundreds in 87 one-day internationals, meaning he passes 50 on average once every four innings.
Unfortunately, the 28-year-old has slipped into a run drought at a time he would like to perform at his best on the world stage.
However, there is a feeling in the New Zealand camp that Astle is just about to produce a substantial score.
He can be a matchwinner on his day and if he got going against Zimbabwe in Leeds, it could spell trouble for the African side.
Astle's highest one-day score of 120 was scored against Zimbabwe at Eden Park in Auckland in the summer of 1995-96.
"I can't remember much about that day. It just happened, as they all do," Astle said.
"I'd love to get going again. I'm going through a bad patch at the moment. Everyone has them.
"You can't just keep scoring runs every game or it would be too easy.
"I've got out to a couple of good nuts in this tournament but that's the way it goes."
Astle's scores in the World Cup have been four against Bangladesh, five against Australia, two against the West Indies, nought against Pakistan and 11 against Scotland.
He had a great summer at home last season and launched his World Cup campaign in lead-up matches against Hampshire and Surrey with scores of 42 and 58 to suggest he was nearing his best form.
However, the swinging Duke ball, moist conditions and green pitches so far have become a haven for opening bowlers and a nightmare for top-order batsmen.
"I feel I must be due for a decent knock. If you think the other way you'd probably get low scores all the way through," Astle said.
"There's not a lot more I really want to say on it. I'm going through a patch and I've just got to come out of it."
The Headingley pitch should be fast and suited to Astle's style of batting, but if the ball continues to move about in the air and off the seam he will have to fight his way back to form the hard way.
The hard-hitting Canterbury right-hander is certainly capable of doing that.
He has scored 2790 one-day runs, placing him fifth on New Zealand's all-time list.
Only Martin Crowe, with 4704 runs, John Wright 3888, Ken Rutherford 3146 and Stephen Fleming 2949 have scored more runs in the one-day arena.
And only Bevan Congdon, Glenn Turner, Crowe and Andrew Jones have better averages than Astle's 33.6.
New Zealand desperately need their top-order batsmen to strike form in the second round of the tournament as they eye a semifinal place.
Their cause will be substantially assisted if Astle returns to form against Zimbabwe, a side who have beaten New Zealand only three times in 17 matches.
But Zimbabwe are on a roll and will go into the game with a lot of confidence from their last game, a maiden win over South Africa. - NZPA
Cricket: Long-suffering Astle down but not out
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