By TERRY MADDAFORD
Only one thing is certain going into today's last round-robin Shell Cup cricket matches - Otago cannot qualify for the top-three playoffs.
Mathematically, the other five teams can win through, but it might not be until late tonight - after the day-night clash between Canterbury and Wellington in Christchurch - that the final placings will be known.
If Northern Districts beat Auckland on Eden Park's outer oval (starting at noon), Northern will finish top and Auckland will be eliminated.
If Canterbury then beat Wellington at Jade Stadium, Northern, Canterbury and Central Districts (who play Otago at Invercargill's Queen's Park at noon), will qualify.
A win for Central could even take them into second place because they go into the last round with the best net run rate.
The top team after today's action goes into the final. The second and third teams play a one-off semifinal on Sunday. The second-placed team have home advantage.
The winner of that game will then have home advantage for Thursday's first final. The second final, and third if needed, will be played at the home ground of the top qualifier on January 27 and 28.
Auckland, seeking some redemption after Tuesday's appalling effort against Central at Eden Park, have made two changes.
Llorne Howell, 12th man in that game, and John Aiken have been replaced by Aaron Barnes - returning from injury - and Terry Crabb, who will bat at No 5.
Crabb played two Shell Trophy matches for Auckland in the 1997-98 season. He has been playing in the current national second XI series.
Auckland coach Tony Sail tagged Tuesday's effort as "pretty average." He said the players had to lift themselves not only for today's game but in time for the return to Shell Trophy competition next month when they meet Central Districts first up.
Northern have also made changes, with Michael Parlane replacing his brother Neal and Scott Styris returning from injury in place of Graeme Aldridge.
Wellington have retained the same 12 for the match in Christchurch, which starts at 2 pm, while Canterbury will go in with the same Xl who beat Otago on Tuesday, if Nathan Astle passes a fitness test.
Astle aggravated his knee injury while scoring 121 in that match.
After watching Sunday's Shell Cup semifinal the New Zealand selectors will name their team on Wednesday to play the first two one-day internationals against Sri Lanka. The opening match is in Hamilton on January 31.
Cricket: Last roll of the dice for one-day playoffs
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