“Apart from Tuesday and Wednesday, it’s looking like a fairly dry and settled week for Auckland,” he said.
The central North Island will bear the brunt of the unsettled weather as heavy rain from the South Island works its way up the country.
“We can expect to see some big shower activity during tomorrow afternoon from Bay of Plenty to Manuwatu, possibly turning thundery and that story continues for the central North Island on Tuesday with a chance of possibly heavy rain,” Miller said yesterday.
Another trough coming through the country on Thursday will bring showers to parts of the South and North Islands.
But the wet weather won’t hang around as a strong ridge of high pressure is expected to arrive in Aotearoa in time for the weekend.
“On Friday and into the weekend it’s looking pretty settled for much of the country,” Miller said.
Only one MetService severe weather watch remains in place over the South Island after a decent amount of rain on Sunday because of a moist south-to-southeast flow covering central New Zealand.
The yellow heavy rain watch over eastern Marlborough and Canterbury between Ward and Cheviot came into effect at 3pm yesterday and remained in place overnight.
Rainfall amounts in these areas may approach warning criteria, especially about the ranges.
The majority of Canterbury was under a severe thunderstorm watch with three warnings issued for Timaru, Ashburton and Waimate, beginning at 3pm on Saturday and lapsing at 7pm last night.
As the year ticks by, El Niño will settle in bringing hot and dry weather with it.
Niwa meteorologist Ben Noll said a shift this month would pull our weather trends away from the often wet and chilly conditions we’ve seen during spring.
“We’ve had some ups and downs this spring, but once we hit the second half of November, we’re going to be on the upswing,” he said.
“It looks like we’re going to get some pretty hot and dry weather for a lot of regions, starting around the middle of the month, and that’s going to set the stage for what we’re predicting in our three-month outlook.”