KEY POINTS:
The prospect of an election-year lolly scramble in tax cuts is foremost in the minds of voters, according to a Herald Digi-Poll survey.
But with both major parties already promising tax cuts the vote grabber is likely to be in how much, rather than if, they are offered.
In a Herald Digi-Poll, just over one quarter (25.5 per cent) of respondents picked tax cuts as an issue likely to influence their vote in the election - more than for hospital waiting lists (17 per cent), the economy (15.1 per cent) or law and order (14.2 per cent.)
The prospect of lower taxes was especially high on the minds of Aucklanders, where one-third of respondents picked tax cuts, compared with 22 per cent of the rest of New Zealanders.
Nor was it just an issue for respondents who said they would vote National - it was top of the list for both National and Labour supporters - with 29 per cent and 23 per cent respectively saying tax cuts were likely to influence their vote.
Yesterday National leader John Key and Labour's Michael Cullen both said tax cuts were still very much on the table and neither was surprised at the level of traction the issue had in the polls.
Dr Cullen said given recent media coverage the result in the poll was not a surprise. However, economic uncertainties were one reason not to set the size and scale of tax cuts too far ahead of the Budget.
Mr Key said he was not surprised tax cuts were the biggest issue - especially for Aucklanders, who faced higher mortgages and living costs. He said the public were "rightfully" demanding tax cuts after the Government's record of high surpluses year after year. Tax cuts were in the media spotlight in late December after Finance Minister Michael Cullen announced he had set aside $1.5 billion, although he said it was not necessarily indicative of the size of the Government's tax-cut package.
They were also prominent mid-year after Prime Minister Helen Clark announced the Government would provide personal tax cuts in the next Budget.
Mr Key said recent financial strife in the United States did not affect the ability to offer tax cuts. Economists have indicated they might be desirable in a slowing economy to boost it.
"But what they do require is the Government to be careful with the quality of its spending. If you are going to tax people less you have to be careful with what you spend and make sure you don't waste it."
Mr Key said National's tax cuts would be "a long-term programme rather than in a big bang election-year bribe".
Despite the publicity about the carbon emissions trading scheme and energy efficiency programmes, global warming was chosen by 9 per cent. Just 2.1 per cent of National supporters picked global warming in their choices, compared with 11 per cent of Labour's and, not surprisingly, 43 per cent of those who said they would vote for the Green Party.
Other issues likely to influence votes for Labour supporters were hospital waiting lists (22 per cent) and the economy (16 per cent), while for National supporters it was the economy (19.5 per cent) and law and order (16 per cent.)
The poll of 750 people was taken between January 10 and January 24 and has a margin of error of plus/minus 3.6 per cent.
It is one of the very rare times tax has headed out health issues as a main issue - in February last year when asked what the main issues were just 5.6 per cent of respondents chose tax.
The poll was also taken before law and order issues shot into the headlines in recent days with a spate of vicious crimes. So far, 10 people have been murdered this year, and the spate of murders and focus on youth crime is likely to push law and order up as an election issue.
The new Electoral Finance Act was not a significant vote-influencing issue - selected by 3.5 per cent.