KEY POINTS:
The Government, trailing National in the polls for nearly a year now, must have had high hopes that its Budget would stop the rot. The centrepiece of the Budget, the KiwiSaver incentives, seemed to have been well accepted, so much so that ministers have been daring National to declare itself against them. But the Herald-DigiPoll surveys we have published during the weekend and today suggest the KiwiSaver is not a Labour-saver after all.
National's lead over Labour has widened to 17 percentage points, a marked increase on the 2.5 points that separated them in our February poll and the single point difference in December, soon after National installed John Key as leader in place of Don Brash. The gap is now nearly twice as wide as it was before the leadership change, which must be a relief to Mr Key and his party.
No party is comfortable changing horses when it is in front; there is too much to lose. But Mr Key's ascension appears to be all gain for National. The party is polling much better with women and now heads Labour for the female vote in the poll published in the Weekend Herald. But the difference is less than four points, whereas National has a 25-point lead among men. A marked gender divide has developed in our politics.
When Labour looks at the poll figures it will probably blame much of its decline on the anti-smacking bill, which 52.7 per cent of our sample still dislike, despite the addition of a rider that police should not prosecute "inconsequential" offences. And Mr Key has earned more credit than Helen Clark for that compromise, although the largest number thank neither leader for it.
As for the Budget, only 10.9 per cent believe they would be better off. So much for KiwiSaver. More than half of those surveyed say they will not join the scheme, and nearly half are not enticed to join by the Budget's announcements that their contributions must be matched by employers and will attract a tax credit. A substantial majority of the sample had no retirement savings plan and not much more than a third of that group planned to join KiwiSaver. So the scheme looks likely to increase the number of New Zealanders saving for their retirement from just under 33 per cent to perhaps 55 per cent.
That might not be all the Government hoped, but it would be a significant improvement. The scheme looks well justified by the figures, though National will note that nearly a third of those already saving intend to take up KiwiSaver instead, or as well. To that extent, the tax credits and added cost to employers will be "wasted" in Treasury terms, because those people were saving without need of the incentives.
Overall, the poll confirms a trend that has been evident for long enough to suggest a change of Government next year, but nobody should write Labour off. Helen Clark is a formidable and resilient leader and never forgets the arithmetic of MMP. Of other parties, only the Greens are polling above the threshold for parliamentary representation, but that will change in an election campaign.
National should not imagine its 50.9 per cent approval rating in this poll gives hope of an absolute majority on election night. Mr Key needs to show he could build a coalition. He is making a start by softening Dr Brash's position on Maori, welfare and the environment, and his co-operation with Helen Clark on the anti-smacking bill has done him no harm. It is rare that an Opposition leader out-polls the Prime Minister, and ours is the second poll to find Mr Key in that position. Election day is still probably 17 months away, long enough for the tide to reverse, but Labour will need something better than KiwiSaver to avoid compulsory retirement.