Warm, dry weather for Northland forecast into autumn

A day at the beach, like this snorkel day at Maitai Bay, has been one of the most effective ways to beat the heat of Northland's great summer.

It's official, summer hasn't bypassed New Zealand, it just got to Northland early and decided to stay as the region had its fourth warmest and fifth driest summer on record.

Despite summer officially ending yesterday, the fine weather, and lack of rain, is set to continue well into autumn.

Much of New Zealand has bemoaned a lack of summer these past few months, with foul weather, storms and unseasonably low temperatures the norm for many.

But MetService meteorologist Georgina Griffiths said the summer did come, but only really to Northland and, to a lesser extent, the Coromandel.

"High pressure came to holiday over Northland in mid-November, and it didn't leave until mid-February. While much of the rest of the country copped unsettled and cooler weather, highs hung on for dear life over North Cape, preventing any rainmakers from coming near," she said.

"Two significant rainfall events on February 8 and 15-16 were the only reprieve in what was a windy, hot and very dry summer for the region."

The MetService long-range forecast in the lead-up to summer wasn't focused on the weak La Nina in the tropics, but instead looked southwards to the Southern Ocean.

"Interestingly, the tropics have been extremely quiet, with only a single, short-lived tropical cyclone so far in the southwest Pacific region.

"Northland ran extremely dry for three months this summer and look at what an impact that had on the region. The driest period was from mid-November to mid-February. And then a couple of heavy rain events in quick succession ... saw 80-odd millimetres of rainfall recorded at most locations in Northland."

These two rainfall events prevented a record low summer rainfall for the region, but did leave it as the equal-fifth lowest since records began.

The "record dry summer" award still goes to the drought of 1945-46, in which summer rainfall totalled an incredibly poor 38mm at Whangarei.

Other low summer rainfall totals were in 1953-54 of 102mm; 1972-73 109mm; 1997-98 125mm, and tied at 128mm, there was a cluster of dry summers 2009-10, 1949-50 and 2016-17.

"This summer was windy, hot and very dry for Northland. Summer rainfall was only 45 per cent of what is normal. Combine that with 40 hot days, [defined as over 25C and the fourth warmest on record] three of which recorded temperatures in excess of 30C, and the drying winds that were seen on occasion, and it all adds up to drought," Ms Griffiths said.

Whangarei also had its warmest day since records began half a century ago with 31.8C on February 13.

Ms Griffiths said the tropics normally brought Northland's wet weather at this time of year, but there was no sign of that arriving in the next few weeks.

"As well, the fine weather we've been having will likely stick around for a few more weeks at least, with daily highs around 25C and 26C.

"We can't rule out a late tropical cyclone," she said, "so this will be something to watch.

You can keep an eye on things at http://www.metservice.com/warnings/tropical-cyclone-activity.

"Expect weather patterns to become slightly more mobile in mid-to-late March but, as always, Northland will be the last to lose the high pressure as we head deeper into autumn."