This is your only warning

EARLY WARNING: More than 10 hectares of scrub and native bush burned at Omanaia on Tuesday, the first major fire of the season. PICTURE/PETER DE GRAAF

Northern Principal Rural Fire Officer Myles Taylor could just about recite his standard warning that extreme care must be taken when the Far North's fire risk begins to rise, but he might be giving that a rest this coming season.

Mr Taylor said earlier this week that he expected firefighters to have a busy summer, but he wouldn't be pussy-footing around with people who did not obey the rules.

"In the past we've given people the benefit of the doubt. There's no excuse now; everyone knows about El Nino. We'll be throwing the book at everybody. The risk is just too great," he said.

Preparations included lining up at least eight helicopters from as far away as Auckland. More helicopters would be sent earlier than in the past, and fire-starters would have to foot the bill. The cost of operating a chopper for an hour is at least $2000.

"Where we sent two helicopters last year, this year we'll send three," he said.

While there were no restrictions yet in Northland, apart from the fire-prone Karikari and Aupouri peninsulas, he still urged anyone planning a fire to get advice from the authority. There was no charge for advice or permits.

National Rural Fire Officer Kevin O'Connor said preparations were under way around the country with equipment being readied, staff trained and awareness campaigns launched in danger areas. The coming fire season was shaping up to be "pretty dry and pretty extreme," and fire restrictions and bans were likely to be imposed earlier than usual.

An early warning of what might be to come was received on Tuesday when more than 10ha of native bush and scrub was burnt near Omanaia, in the South Hokianga (see page 3), while rural fire crews had already been called to out-of-control burn-offs and rubbish fires before that. Among the most recent was a blaze on the Karikari Peninsula, which is subject to year-round fire restrictions, on Monday afternoon.

Mr Taylor said quarter of a hectare of kikuyu went up in flames after an attempt at land clearing went awry. Firefighters from the Karikari and Rangiputa rural fire parties, along with the Mangonui Fire Brigade, spent two hours making sure the blaze did not spread into a large area of manuka.

"If it had got away on us it would have been huge," he said.

The fire starter would be billed - the cost was likely to be around $2000 - and could also face prosecution.

The last time firefighters were badly stretched was in 2011, the year a Karikari Peninsula fire destroyed several homes and claimed the lives of a helicopter pilot and a DoC ranger.

Forecasts suggest that New Zealand is in for an El Nino weather pattern that could rival that of 1997-98, the strongest since 1950, bringing strong winds and little rainfall. The worst-hit areas are likely to be the north of the North Island and the east of both islands.

The previous three strongest El Ninos - 1972-73, 1982-83 and 1997-98 - all resulted in droughts, and Niwa forecaster Chris Brandolino said this summer could be just as bad.

"We think that this El Nino - and it's already very strong - has a distinct possibility of being a top three, top four," he said.

El Nino is a weather pattern associated with a warming of Pacific Ocean surface temperatures. It occurs at irregular intervals, averaging five years and lasts nine months to two years. In New Zealand it brings stronger and more frequent westerly winds in summer, leading to drought in eastern areas. In spring and autumn south-westerly winds are more common.

-For information about fire restrictions or permits, go to havingafire.org.nz or call (09) 401-0723. In an emergency call 111.