Some dairy farmers should be having trouble sleeping at night according to the Ministry for Primary Industries' pastoral farm monitoring report, which says rural debt has risen from $46 billion to $50 billion, dairy farmers owing $33 billion of that.
Farmers of New Zealand spokesman Bill Guest said it was estimated that "hard core" debt totalling around $20 billion was owed by 2200 farmers, an average of $10 million per farm, who were already highly vulnerable given Fonterra's final payout prediction of $5.25 per kilo of milk solids.
Even that figure was now looking unrealistic, he said, and half the country's dairy farmers could be looking at failing to break even after paying farm working costs and interest.
On-farm costs averaged $3.80 per kilogram.
Mr Guest recalled that 500 farmers "went to the wall" when David Lange's Labour government introduced its free market reforms in the 1980s, losing their farms in mortgagee sales. Farmers marched on Parliament and picketed banks, and there was general outrage over interest rates of 20 per cent-plus. It was debt rather than high interest rates that were behind the financial crisis now facing farmers, however.