Maori power on the rise

Professor Rawiri Taonui
Massey University

Changing demographics mean Maori political power is on the rise - if iwi and urban groups allow democratic representation for all Maori.

Much has been made of the demographic trends that predict Asians will outnumber Maori. But it's not tension between these two groups that will shape New Zealand politics; it is the fact that a combined brown population will one day equal or outnumber Europeans. By 2050 New Zealand's Maori, Pasifika and Asian populations will dominate school-age children, tertiary students, the workforce and those of voting age. Those who believe demographics will reduce Maori political power are mistaken.

Maori have called for greater constitutional recognition of the Treaty of Waitangi, and it is likely there will be a formalising of the current confusing hierarchy of the principles of the Treaty through the Waitangi Tribunal, courts and Crown. However, while the Treaty will increase in foundational significance, it will have less constitutional importance, because the main avenue for Maori political power will be through more Maori in Parliament.

The seeds for this have already been sown over the past decade, through a growing Maori population and higher Maori and Pasifika birth rates, the introduction of MMP and the rise of the Maori Party and Prime Minister John Key's visionary partnership with them. The latter broke the yoke of a Labour monopoly that allowed the party to win votes on the back of the Maori seats, while marginalising brown voices to the periphery. Tariana Turia and Pita Sharples made kaupapa Maori politics acceptable. The lesson of the last decade is that Maori voices are also important in general seats and as list MPs.

National has more Maori MPs than Labour, and more ministers of Maori descent than Labour ever produced in one government. Maori lead three of the minor parties. The current generation of Te Ururoa Flavell, Hekia Parata, Winston Peters, Kelvin Davis, Louisa Wall, Metiria Turei, Marama Davidson and others are a major force. The days of a lone Ben Couch being the only Maori MP outside the Maori seats are long gone.

Maori will rise across the political spectrum, particularly in the centre left and right, and in the longer term, with Pasifika partners, will dominate the Labour Party. While the demographic momentum will be with non-European ethnicities, the Pasifika and Asian demographics are internally diverse, making their unified cultural momentum more difficult to achieve. That means our first brown Prime Minister will likely be Maori, and in place within the next generation.

Will the Maori seats be abandoned? While there are many more MPs of Maori descent in Parliament, the Maori seats remain the main vehicle by which the voice of kaupapa Maori, iwi and Maori community interests are heard. They will remain for another generation or two.

Achieving a voice at local body level will be more challenging. In 2001 Maori made up just 20 of more than 1000 local-body politicians. The Local Government Electoral Amendment Act 2002 attempted to address this by allowing local bodies to consider establishing Maori wards. But these can be subject to mandatory public polls, and inherent prejudices can, and have, barred progress.

Best estimates are that less than five per cent of successful local body candidates are Mori, despite being 16 per cent of the population. The legislation requires amendment to bring Maori representation into line with the UN Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples (2007), including requiring local bodies to ensure Maori participation and representation.

One issue threatens to open a schism within Maoridom over the long term. During the recent New Plymouth debate over Maori wards, some in the local iwi community opposed democratically elected Maori wards in favour of iwi-appointed mana whenua representatives.

This is akin to the Independent Maori Statutory Board for the Auckland City Council, where mana whenua iwi appoint a selection panel who in turn appoint nine representatives, seven for mana whenua, who make up only 20 per cent of the Auckland Maori population, and two for the other 80 per cent of urban Maori who live in Auckland. Similar principles underpin other processes for representative and statutory bodies, such as for Te Ohu Kai Moana (the Maori Fisheries Trust) and the Waitaha Education Advisory Board in Canterbury.

This is a form of cultural nationalism that applies questionable assumptions about the past. It assumes Maori society is primordial and unchanging, and hands a monopoly to a minority of iwi representatives, rather than allowing democratic election by all Maori.

All Maori descend from iwi; however, not all Maori participate in iwi affairs. About 10 per cent of Maori do not know their iwi; 40 per cent do not know their sub-tribe, a key indicator of non-participation. Around 60 per cent of Ngapuhi, the largest tribe, live in Auckland or elsewhere outside the traditional Ngapuhi territory. The percentage of tribal descendants who participate in votes or surveys is significantly low. More than 80 per cent of Maori are urban, although urban organisations exhibit an equal but opposite form of cultural nationalism, and cannot claim to be fully representative either.

This practice allows an elite to dominate representation, while also benefiting from lucrative annuities and other payments. And while there is nothing wrong with having elite, one based on chauvinism rather than representation risks marginalising a large and youthful disenfranchised majority. One does not emancipate by rendering the majority silent.