The latter would seem to be the most realistic, but will come at a cost not only in terms of massive rate increases but also by unprecedented council austerity. If ratepayers have to find many tens of millions of dollars they will find themselves kissing goodbye a good deal of current council spending, not least the likes of the pools/sports complexes that are currently the subject of intense lobbying in Kaitaia and Kerikeri. If things are as bad as they seem likely to be the council will struggle to pay for a mid-meeting cup of tea let alone throwing millions of dollars into projects that now look like luxuries we cannot afford.
Mr Carter also says there is no point in apportioning blame, which is very generous of him. Some will not be so charitable. Some might well ask if turning a blind eye to infrastructural decay was how the last council was able to trumpet its debt reduction.
Some might ask how it was that the council spent millions of ratepayers' dollars on Te Ahu when one Kaitaia release valve was spilling sewage on an almost daily basis. Some might ask how it was that the council spent several million dollars on a new water source for Kaitaia that has yet to produce a single drop, the plan apparently being to pump the stuff into an ageing system that might well be in little better shape than the town's sewerage.
Kerikeri's proposed sewerage scheme is in trouble too. The consultation process might have won an award but the sad fact is that the council twice missed deadlines to claim the original government subsidy. Even if that assistance is forthcoming, the town now seems likely to see a much reduced scheme, which will not include Riverview, where the sewerage is most badly needed.
That cutting of cloth might make the project financially possible, but will only delay the evil day when Kerikeri is going to have to dig deep.
Kaitaia's sewerage is the real disaster (so far) though. It seems that spills have become so commonplace that they are no longer remarked upon. And in hindsight the council's response to a sewerage spill at the writer's home back in Yvonne Sharp's day was telling. That issue was resolved by the installation of what was effectively a floodgate between the house and main, the council admitting that next time there was a spill it would affect one of the neighbours.
It was then that the Northland Age discovered that sewage spills were a common event in many parts of Kaitaia. It also discovered that low-lying gully traps east of the Allen Bell Drive bridge, which admitted stormwater to the system every time it rained hard enough to create minor surface flooding, were a large part of the problem, exacerbated by illegal downpipe connections to the sewer. And it was told that part of the council's problem was that the plans of the sewerage system east of the bridge could not be found.
Promises of swift council action came to nought. It is only now, with a new Mayor and a newish council, that we are about to bite the bullet.
However strongly John Carter feels about looking forward rather than back, Kaitaia, and maybe any number of other communities, have been failed, big time. And Cr Ann Court's professed shock and disappointment at the state of the system simply rubs salt into the wound. Cr Court, now in her fourth term, was presumably unaware of the 2004 report, and the 2006 update. She cannot be unaware of the Kerikeri sewerage debacle though, or the state of the Far North's roads even before the storm, or the fact that major infrastructural investment has long been needed generally around the district.
And what of Crs Macauley, Maxwell, Kitchen and Radich? Hard to believe that the latter two particularly were shocked and disappointed to hear that the sewerage system in their ward's biggest town had deteriorated to a Third World standard.
For the moment, however, while we might well ponder the calibre of the job done by the people we elect to run this district, we must be patient, and wait for the full diagnosis. Mr Carter has undertaken to consult throughout the district once the full picture has been established, so council and community can discuss what needs to be done, how it will be done, who will pay for it and where the priorities will lie, offering the example of Kaitaia deciding whether it wants a new swimming pool or a sewerage system that works, which is commendable. One trusts that the town will have the brains not to vote for a pool.
It's an ill wind that blows nobody good though, and this cloud has at least one silver lining for those who don't fancy a Northland unitary authority.
If the Local Government Commission sticks with its draft proposal, and it goes to a poll, as it surely will, what are the odds now that Whangarei will vote to throw its lot (and its rates) in with a district that might well turn out to be a basket case?