Far North Easter weather forecast shows average temperatures with chance of rain

In the lead-up to Easter weekend, MetService meteorologist Jessie Owen says temperatures are expected to be about average for this time of year.

Weather across the Easter long weekend in Te Hiku is looking like a mixed bag, says one weather expert.

MetService meteorologist Jessie Owen predicts Easter will feature a few weather systems on the go, leading to spells of rain, plus some fine weather too.

“The good news is that we are expecting warmer air to be coming in from the north, so temperatures won’t be too cold – around average for this time of year,” Owen said.

A low-pressure system is set to approach the country from the northeast later on Thursday and into Friday, directing easterly winds and periods of rain on to Northland on Friday.

Western parts of the region would be more sheltered, Owen said.

As the low then pulled away from the country on Saturday, things looked to clear up, and some finer weather could be expected on Saturday and early on Easter Sunday.

“A large trough of low pressure in the Tasman Sea is then expected to move across from west to east, bringing another period of rain and northwesterly winds later on Sunday and into Monday,” Owen said.

“While we are still a wee while away, the timing of these weather features could change, but give a general flavour of the weather.”

This comes ahead of what is being predicted as one of our cooler winters in recent years.

According to MetService, the average temperature for this time of year in the Far North usually sits at around 21C and with a minimum temperature of 13C.

Looking to winter, the forecast for temperatures was likely to be around normal or slightly above for the season.

The last three winters had been remarkably warm, however, making this year may feel cooler in comparison.

This was due to what scientists say is gradually underway now: the formation of an El Nino climate pattern.

Traditionally, this regime brings the opposite of La Nina, which has contributed to a trio of record-warm winters.

This month, scientists have been watching La Nina’s unusual three-year reign come to an end, with help from a tropical phenomenon called a ‘westerly wind burst’, which has effectively pushed it off the stage.

Niwa meteoroligist Ben Noll said that, as our climate state shifted towards El Nino, we might not see as much of that abnormal winter warmth in 2023.

“The tendency may be for more southerly winds like we saw [last week],” he said.

“Over the last couple of winters, we saw more of a northerly wind pattern, which certainly isn’t what we’d consider a cold wind direction.

“Two months from now, we’d expect it to bite much harder – and it may well be that people notice this winter to be noticeably cooler than previous years.”

Noll noted the winters of 2020, 2021 and 2022 had come in at 0.97C, 1.16C and 1.2C above average respectively – and last year’s also happened to be New Zealand’s wettest on record.

According to Niwa’s regional predictions for March-May 2023, Northland, Auckland, the Waikato and the Bay of Plenty showed temperatures were equally likely to be near average (a 45 per cent chance) or above average (a 45 per cent chance).

Rainfall totals were most likely to be near normal (a 45 per cent chance).

While this represented a drier signal compared to previous outlooks, Niwa said the remnant effect of La Nina could still produce some sub-tropical and/or tropical low-pressure systems that could track near the region, occasionally increasing the risk for heavy rain.

Soil moisture levels were also equally likely to be near normal (a 45 per cent chance) or above normal (a 50 per cent chance), while river flows were most likely to be above normal (a 50 per cent chance).