Winning bragging rights as the best rugby tipster in the country usually takes years of practice, hours of careful analysis and the wisdom of Solomon, combined with the foresight of Nostradamus.
For Greg Shipton, it took a quick word in his ear from his 9-year-old daughter, Bailey.
Shipton is the leader of the online Telecom Virtual Rugby Super 14 results tipping competition. The popular operations manager at the Northland Rugby Union is the best of 146,000 people who try to guess who will win and by how much each weekend, via a website system.
With one game to go, the final between the Crusaders and the Waratahs tomorrow night, Shipton has a seven-point lead. If the Crusaders prevail so will Shipton and first prize, a new Ford Falcon, will arrive at his door soon after.
But Shipton's success is largely due to a tip from Bailey which saw him surge from about 450th place on the rankings midway through the series, to first place.
"The one weekend when I had a good weekend and the others had a bit of a shocker was the weekend I picked a draw," Shipton said.
"But it was all because of my daughter, Bailey. I was sitting there making my picks and trying to decide this one game (between the Lions and the Reds) and I couldn't make up my mind. I asked Bailey who she thought would win, but she said, `if you can't decide, Dad, why don't you pick a draw'. So I picked a draw," he said.
It turned out to be the magic bullet. The Lions and Reds drew 24-all, giving Shipton a double points bonus on the website rankings.
Once in front, Shipton suddenly found himself increasingly nervous about placing his picks each weekend. On the one hand he wanted to protect his lead and was tempted to be cautious, on the other he knew he had to play for keeps.
"At one stage I had a 13-point lead, I had a real good weekend when everyone else struggled and I thought `this is easy'. The very next week I had a complete shocker. So I then thought I had to just trust my gut feeling . From then on I picked teams like the Reds, who were not going too well, in games that history said they could do well in. That worked."
Shipton is almost assured of winning, even if the Waratahs beat the Crusaders. His closest rival, he notes, is a Crusaders fan, and is unlikely to tip against the championship favourites. He knows it could happen, though.
The use of a Ford Falcon for a year is the main prize. Runner-up gets a Telecom cellphone.
"The Crusaders win and I get a car, they lose and I get a cellphone," he said.
RUGBY - Bailey's call puts Dad top of rugby tipsters
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