The Southern Districts Premier Grade rugby finalists will be decided tomorrow and with the relative closeness of this year's competition, picking winners isn't easy.
The semifinal between Hikurangi and Mid Northern seems like one you should be able to lay some cash on - Mid Northern have all the recent form and are nearly at full strength while their opposition got monstered by nearly 50 points at Dargaville last week.
But anything beyond "quiet" confidence is a step too far for Mid Northern skipper Jason Hammond.
"I'm confident that within our team we've got the right players to do the job but a Hikurangi team that's been beaten by 50 points and who's missing a whole lot of players is still a pretty dangerous one. We're well aware that they'll come out of the blocks and launch everything they've got at us," he said.
"A good start has been a big focus of our training this week. If we can get our start right I think we'll go well, but while I'm quietly confident, it's the business end of the season and if you're not on the game, you're gone. You only have to look at what happened to Mid Western on the weekend at Old Boys," he said.
The memories of Mid Northern semifinal defeat last season by Wellsford - who went on to win the final - is another stark reminder of how quickly play-off matches can turn.
Lock Buster Tahere returns after injury, bringing the team back to near full-strength - a situation that Hikurangi coach Stu Cook could only dream about.
Hikurangi were missing 10 regular starters from last weekend's match and that situation is unlikely to improve much tomorrow, with Cook forced to weaken the Premier Reserve side - who are also semifinalists in their competition - just to select a team.
"Our personnel changes have forced us to abandon the tactics we used earlier in the season but we won't know until later how many - if any - of the Northland boys we'll get back and our reserve team have had to step up to replace the NPC boys," he said.
The emphasis will be on keeping mistakes to a minimum and Cook has been trying to get through the message that anything can happen in finals football - and getting the attitude right is half his battle.
The second semifinal features the minor premiers, the Western Sharks, and the 2008 champions Hora Hora in a match that should go to the wire.
Hora Hora's presence in the play-offs came unexpectedly, a result of Mid Western's last minute defeat at Old Boys, and they are determined to ride their luck at least for another week.
"Our guys are excited ... if they can turn up and play to their potential then we're in with a show," Hora Hora coach Mark Seymour said.
"The Sharks have probably been the form team this year and it'll be a tough ask but having said that it's semifinal football and anything can happen," he said.
Having Troy Woodman available again may help Hora Hora neutralise the Sharks' long distance strike power - wingers Mateo Malupo and Ualosi Kailea scored hat-tricks last week.
Hora Hora beat the Western Sharks 17-13 the last time they visited Dargaville in Round 13 but Sharks coach Myles Ferris is well aware of their strengths.
"They're very effective at getting their hands on the ball and while they don't have a great lineout it seems to work well enough," Ferris said.
Hora Hora's strength is turning the ball over and their defence is what has got them into the semifinal. Ferris was waiting until practice last night to find out if either of their two Northland players, Luke Hamilton and Malupo, was available.
Hamilton is the link man.
"But we've trained well with Tane Takalua as his replacement and he's got a lot of attributes that we like and he's quick too, so we're hoping he can ask questions of these guys near and around the rucks," Ferris said.
The Premier Reserve semifinals will precede the main match at both venues. The Sharks' Reserves also won the minor premiership and host fourth-placed Kamo at Farmland's Park, while at Hukerenui, there is a repeat of the main match with Hikurangi facing Mid Northern.
Contenders know to keep focus
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