Whangārei is set for huge population growth over the next 30 years, with Whangārei Heads and Marsden Point/Ruakākā two areas that will see their populations soar.
Huge population growth for Whangārei is among key features addressed in the district's new 30-year growth strategy.
Whangārei District Council has formally adopted its new growth strategy with the district's population forecast to grow to 145,000 people by 2051 - a 45 per cent increase.
The strategy seeks to manage growth, with strong bicultural relationships between the council and Māori, into a future with as many as 20,000 more houses, 200 hectares of new industrial land - and resulting increasing challenges protecting the district's natural assets as a result - all in a climate-challenged world.
Whangārei mayor Sheryl Mai said the strategy 'Sustainable Futures – Kia Toitū ā Mua' provided a foundation for effectively managing district growth in the next three decades.
A rich natural environment, thriving economy and welcoming community had contributed to making Whangārei one of New Zealand's fastest-growing districts, she said.
Marsden Point/Ruakākā's growth tops forecast population increases and is predicted to treble, the area's current housing area dwarfed by significant future development increasing its existing footprint by 200 per cent.
Waipū's population is expected to increase by 118 per cent, its footprint more than trebling with future development earmarked to the settlement's south-west, north-west and north-east. Intensification is also highlighted for some of the settlement's existing area.
Infill housing and redevelopment intensification are earmarked for the city centre, including Kensington, Regent and Morningside, to provide housing for a forecast 14 per cent population increase for central Whangārei.
"It is our responsibility to ensure that our infrastructure, housing, transport and economy are planned with this growth in mind, allowing our district to provide a sustainable future for us all," Mai said.
Thirteen-hundred community submissions were part of the three-year process of creating the new strategy, which can be viewed at www.wdc.govt.nz/GrowthStrategy.
Whangārei's population is expected to reach 100,000 for the first time this year. Urban fringe communities and coastal settlements are experiencing the highest population growth.
Whangārei's position as the northernmost city in New Zealand's inter-regional upper North Island is a key driver for the district's future growth, the strategy said. Fifty-four per cent of New Zealand's population now lives across Waikato, Bay of Plenty, Auckland and Northland. Significant growth is putting pressure on the environment, housing, infrastructure and space across this bulging-at-the-seams upper North Island.
Four parts of the district have been earmarked as high growth into the next 30 years - Marsden Point/ Ruakākā, Kamo, Tikipunga and Whangārei city. Housing for these areas is mostly forecast to come from new areas significantly increasing their footprints. Housing growth for Whangārei city is forecast to come from infill housing and redevelopment across suburbs including Ōtangarei, Kensington, Mairtown, Regent and the Avenues.
Six parts of the district have been identified as moderate growth areas - Waipū, Hikurangi, Maunu, Ōtāika, Ōnerāhi and Pārua Bay.
These growth locations will focus development across the district.
The large number of people moving to live in Whangārei district is forecast to continue.
"If our district can preserve its attractive natural environment and relatively affordable housing while improving incomes and labour force participation, then it is likely to experience sustained growth, principally by attracting New Zealanders from other regions," the strategy said.
As many as 20,000 new homes are expected to be required to house this massive population growth.
Papakāinga development is seen as a particular option for Māori housing provision. This development type also potentially includes community, education and recreational facilities, places of assembly and industrial and commercial activities- all directly associated with its communal nature and function.
There are about 11,000 hectares of Māori-owned land in Whangārei District, the biggest areas around rural Pipiwai and Pakotai. Coastal Māori-owned land includes areas around Whangaruru, Ōakura, Ngunguru and Takahiwai.
The strategy said about 33 per cent of the district's population identify as Māori, with the four areas of highest Whangārei percentages of Māori in Whangārei being Otangarei (78 per cent), Tarewa (65 per cent), Raumanga (60 per cent) and Hikurangi (52 per cent). compared with 18 per cent nationally.
Northport expansion, the $240 million dry dock, relocation of the New Zealand Royal Navy base from Devonport to Whangārei, improved rail infrastructure for the region's forecast 28 per cent increase in freight volumes to 23 million tonnes by 2042 are four large scale projects the strategy focuses on to support the district's future.
The Auckland to Northland corridor is seen as a major influence on Whangārei's future growth.
Big growth comes with increasing pressure on the beaches and natural environment that are key drivers for the increasing numbers of people moving to the district.
Councillor Anna Murphy said growth created a paradox.
"How do we manage our growth and also protect our natural capital," Murphy said.
The strategy said care needed to be taken with considering the environment.
Coastal and rural areas were already facing more pressures as a result of development and climate change risks. Inappropriate subdivision and development and associated vegetation clearance and/or earthworks threatened the sensitive environment.
More than 200 hectares of industrial land is expected to be needed to support district growth. Whangārei's port at Marsden Point and adjacent industrial and business land offered significant future growth opportunity, particularly as port activity expanded.
Nine strategic drivers guiding Whangārei's new growth strategy: