Weather: ‘Potential’ for North Island snow next week with cold surge incoming

Warm spring weather is starting to take hold but we may soon return to the kind of conditions seen in the depths of winter with “potential” snowfall in the North Island.

One weather model shared to X by Hauraki Gulf Weather projected a “polar streamer” over the country early next week “dropping snow in unusual places”.

This included 2cm of snow on Northland and snow flurries for South Auckland and Waikato.

“Still a long way out & downgrades are likely but always interesting to watch the polar vortex spook the best weather models,” it posted.

The Euro model projecting a polar streamer over NZ early next week, dropping snow in unusual places. 2cm of ❄️on Northland & ❄️ flurries for Sth Auckland / Waikato. Still a long way out & downgrades are likely but always interesting to watch the polar vortex spook the best… pic.twitter.com/aOCAfU36Mc

— Hauraki Gulf Weather (@HaurakiGulfWx) September 9, 2024

Niwa meteorologist and forecaster Ben Noll told the Herald it was still early days forecasting where snow may fall and how much places would receive.

“The weather pattern does look favourable” for snowfall, Noll said, but “we are definitely seeing elevated chances for colder temperatures next week”.

Noll said the snow would likely fall in higher elevated areas such as the Tararua Ranges.

When asked if Auckland had any chance of seeing snow, Noll said it would be “highly exceptional”.

Snow in Auckland is rare and the last time the city had snow was in 2011.

That snowfall event was described as a “once-in-a-lifetime” polar blast. Before 2011 the city centre in Auckland hadn’t received snow since the 1930s.

Noll said we will get a better picture of the “potential snow” as we move into this weekend.

MetService meteorologist John Law said he is not expecting snow for Northland, Auckland and Waikato.

He said it will be the South Island that bears the brunt of the cold weather early next week.

“Next week as the winds turn southwesterly it will be bringing colder air up the country and also a scattering of showers into Northland and Auckland with temperatures around 15C. However, with the wind it will be feeling colder.”

A heavy snow watch in place for parts of the lower South Island. Photo / George Heard

There is currently a heavy snow watch in place for parts of the lower South Island (Central Otago, Queenstown Lakes District and southern Canterbury) with the heaviest snow expected above 500 metres.

The snow is expected during the second half of the day on Thursday and into Friday.

Some of the higher roads in the South Island will be impacted.

Law said commuters should keep a lookout for any updates from NZTA Waka Kotahi.

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