Paihia during a cruise ship visit day before Covid-19 struck in early 2020. Tourism's contribution to the Northland economy grew by 6.8 per cent in 2020 thanks to domestic travel. Photo / File
Paihia during a cruise ship visit day before Covid-19 struck in early 2020. Tourism's contribution to the Northland economy grew by 6.8 per cent in 2020 thanks to domestic travel. Photo / File
LIFE AND POLITICS
About 3.8 million people visited New Zealand in 2019. Globally, there were 1.5 billion trips made to overseas destinations. Those figures probably represent peak international tourism. It's unlikely the world will see those numbers again.
I'm basing that claim on these factors:
1. Covid-19 and its variants aren't going away.Global herd immunity may elude us. Other pandemics are inevitable. Many will see vacationing in distant places as a risk, especially older travellers.
2. The impact of Covid is destroying capital invested in the travel industry, from expensive planes and cruise ships to hotels and travel companies. It won't be easy to raise that capital again when there's doubt over the return of pre-Covid tourist numbers. Airline capacity is going to be reduced.
3. Airline profits in recent years have come from bulk travel. Fewer travellers will force surviving airlines to hike prices to remain profitable. Higher prices will reduce demand, especially to long-haul destinations.
4. The economic consequences of global lockdowns are still to be fully felt. Unprecedented stimulus and borrowing by governments worldwide has only delayed the economic contraction, spreading it out over more years. There's going to be less people with the spare funds to travel overseas.
Ovation of the Seas, one of the world's biggest cruise ships, passes Purerua Peninsula and the Black Rocks on its maiden visit to the Bay of Islands in 2017. Photo / File
5. Then we have shifts in behaviour. Hopping on a plane is the most carbon-emitting thing you can do. Increasing numbers of people, conscious of their carbon footprint, are giving up jet travel or limiting it.
A long-haul flight to New Zealand will be too much for the conscience of some. Flight shaming is already a thing in Europe. Expect those social pressures to increase when global weather events get more severe.
6. As world oil supplies become constrained (especially the quality stuff needed for jet fuel), there will be another impact on cost. Forcing airlines to keep prices high and out of reach for many, even in richer countries.
For all these reasons, international air travel will become more of an elite activity than previously. (Before Covid, only 4 per cent of the world's population flew internationally in a year).
Will a long-haul flight to New Zealand be too much for the conscience of some overseas travellers wanting to visit? Photo / File
And yet, a few prominent columnists I've read have voiced a great deal of optimism about visitor numbers to New Zealand rebounding. As if all we needed to do was get vaccinated, open our borders, and tourists will flock here from all parts.
The Government, however, appears to be more aware of some of the issues above. They're also conscious of the disquiet amongst some New Zealanders at the numbers of people previously coming here and threatening the quality of our pristine environments.
Tourism Minister Stuart Nash, speaking at a tourism conference in Queenstown last week, pitched a future vision of tourism that was about fewer numbers and higher quality (by which he meant wealthy people who spend more).
The Government seems to understand that the tourist landscape is going to be irrevocably changed.
While that process will hurt more than a few, especially in the South Island, some interesting figures came out of last year.
Most startling is this one: in 2020, the year of Covid, tourism's contribution to the Northland economy grew 6.8 per cent.
That's because more New Zealanders decided to holiday in Tai Tokerau.
Many businesses in hospitality and accommodation had a very good year, thanks also to Northlanders staying closer to home.
We often hear about the benefits of attracting international tourists, but domestic tourism has always been substantial.
While international visitors accounted for nearly 40 per cent of tourist spending in 2019, over 60 per cent was Kiwis spending in their own country.
It's interesting also to make a comparison with our big neighbour, Australia.
The figures were 26 per cent spending by international visitors and 74 per cent by Aussies travelling domestically.
Overall, the tourism industry accounted for 3 per cent of Australia's GDP in 2019. That compares to tourism in New Zealand making a direct contribution to GDP of 6 per cent.
These comparative figures, the size of the tourist industry relative to the economy and less reliance on international visitors, is one reason Australia's economy hasn't contracted as much as ours.
In the short term, there's going to be a push from the Government and the tourism industry to get Australians coming to New Zealand. Whether the numbers approach the 1.5 million visitors who flew from Australia in 2019, we'll see.
The future of tourism, I'm certain, will be travelling experiences closer to home that have a lower impact on the environment.
• Northern Advocate columnist Vaughan Gunson writes about life and politics.
