Rail and the steady hauling power of trains being the tortoise. The flash and zoom of cars and trucks along a four-lane highway from Auckland to Whangārei being the hare.
The chances of the tortoise in this telling of the story didn't look good a few years ago. The National government had mothballed the North Auckland rail line north of Kauri and was starving rail of the money needed to maintain and upgrade the rest of the line.
All the money was on the hare, instead. In 2016, John Key overturned a few clods of dirt to commence work on the four-lane highway between Pūhoi and Warkworth.
National was promising a four-lane highway the rest of the way to Whangārei. The how, when, and at what cost, was a bit hazy.
National was promising a four-lane highway the rest of the way to Whangārei. The how, when, and at what cost, was a bit hazy, says Vaughan Gunson. Photo / File
In Opposition, Northland's National MPs have continued to promise a four-lane highway.
Though still not offering much detail. Like mentioning that under National's favoured Public-Private Partnership model, drivers on new sections of highway would have to pay a toll.
As for the tortoise, it's now making a solid showing. The current Government is investing over $500 million in getting the North Auckland rail line back into working shape. The new spur line to Marsden Point is going ahead.
The political voice for rail is louder with the Greens and NZ First influential in government. Public opinion is shifting to rail, on the back of concerns over climate change and the number of trucks on the road.
The funding for new highways hasn't been switched off, however. The stretch of SH1 between Whangārei and Northport is going to be four-laned at the cost of $692 million.
And Northland's mayors are still pushing for a four-lane highway that goes all the way from Auckland to Whangārei. As well as a two-track rail line linking the two cities.
You could say that the tortoise and hare, rail and roads, are neck and neck.
I'm backing the tortoise to come through, however. Looking at the business case for extending the four-lane highway from Warkworth to Wellsford has convinced me further that rail is the future.
Some of the more than 100km of new rail track which arrived at Northport earlier this year to go on to the rail line between Auckland and Whangārei. Photo / File
Compiled by the NZ Transport Agency, the business case puts the cost of this 26km of road in the range of $1.7 to $2.1 billion. (Do the rough figures yourself for a four-lane highway that gets past the Brynderwyns.)
The agency's business case is grounded on the assumption of traffic volumes almost doubling to 25,000 vehicles per day.
The population of the Rodney area and greater Northland is increasing, but hardly at the rate which would see that kind of increase in traffic volumes anytime soon. Particularly if you factor in changing behaviours as a result of spiking oil costs, or people travelling less by car to reduce carbon emissions.
And what about trucks? At some point in the future, when the wells of cheap oil in Saudi Arabia and a few other countries are near exhausted, the cost of shifting heavy freight on the country's roads will go up.
Traffic heading north on State Highway 1 at a standstill north of Auckland. Photo / File
A higher price for diesel is going to make rail the more cost-efficient option. Rail uses far less energy to shift the equivalent weight of freight than a truck and trailer on the road.
Investment in the North Auckland line would, in the long run, deliver a better return on public money than a similar investment in highways.
That's the economics of the matter, but rail is the right thing to do because of the need to reduce carbon emissions.
In the end, I'm predicting the tortoise wins, revitalised rail will be essential to connecting Northland to the rest of New Zealand. For all the bravado and grand claims made for a four-lane highway bypassing the Brynderwyns, it won't happen.
• Northern Advocate columnist Vaughan Gunson writes about life and politics.
