Vaughan Gunson: How might the New Zealand Coalition Government's demise come about?

Cargo ships and containers at the Port of Los Angeles, the US' busiest seaport. Military tensions are being heightened with every tariff salvo fired, says Vaughan Gunson. Photo / Getty Images

I think I know what would bring down the Coalition Government. It's the trade war between China and the United States turning into something more dangerous.

I don't mean to alarm, but there are concerning scenarios that could play out. Military tensions are being heightened with every tariff salvo fired. The chances of a military stand-off between China and the US, or a proxy war fought in another country in the Asia-Pacific region, are real.

Comments made by Winston Peters, in his role as Foreign Minister, over the past year paint a clear picture of whose side he'd have New Zealand take.

NZ First thinks seriously about future military conflicts and our involvement in them alongside traditional allies, the United States and Australia.

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern with Deputy Prime Minister Winston Peters. If things did get seriously messy between China and the US, Labour would be in a very difficult position. Photo / File

The Green Party thinks about these things too, but only with pacifist-inclined horror.
The Greens, if they could, would reduce our military capability to civil emergency preparedness and international peacekeeping.

They're for United Nations multilateralism and independent foreign policy, not alliances that pull smaller countries into the wars of larger powers.

The biggest rat they've had to swallow to be part of the Government wasn't the Waka Jumping Bill, it was the $2.3 billion purchase of Boeing P8 Poseidon aircraft fitted with anti-submarine technology.

Make no mistake, these are aircraft for use in war, which would fit seamlessly under US command. NZ First was an enthusiastic supporter of the purchase, Labour didn't say no.

If things did get seriously messy between China and the US, which led to Washington pressuring New Zealand to show which side it was on, Labour would be in a very difficult position.

The US Navy aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan, front, and the guided-missile destroyer USS Milius, centre, conduct an exercise with Japan. Photo / AP

If Labour bowed to that pressure, spurred on by NZ First, then the Greens would have to remove themselves from the Government.

Their core voter support and activist base within the party couldn't tolerate Green MPs in Cabinet sanctioning even the smallest contribution to an actively engaged US force.

The Greens could make a principled stand that would likely see their support increase.

Conversely, if NZ First couldn't get its way in Cabinet and New Zealand's military commitment was less than what it wished, they too would probably pull the pin on the Government.

NZ First would fancy winning support by taking an aggressive stance and appealing to anti-Chinese sentiment, something the party has long sought to align itself with and encourage.

Mobilising some old-fashioned nationalism and, let's be honest, the racism that lurks in the shadows of New Zealand society would be their goal.

I've no doubt Winston could unleash ugliness if it suited his political purposes.

This isn't necessarily how the political future will play out, we can all have some say in that. Just as the ordinary people of China and the United States have power to influence their leaders.

But decisions are being made by our Government - like the purchase of anti-submarine aircraft and a drift back into alliance with the United States - which are not being publically debated and contested as much as they should be.

At stake is not just the future of the Coalition Government, but the values and ideals we most want to uphold.

■ Vaughan Gunson is a writer and poet interested in social justice and big issues facing the planet.