A continued tourism boost and population growth from Auckland will be the biggest factors contributing to Northland's economy over the next two years, according to one of the country's leading economic forecasters.
Gareth Kiernan, chief forecaster for Infometrics, the private firm which provides economic data for local authorities, believes an upward trend in Northland's tourism industry would continue in 2016 and 2017.
Early indications showed that for the September 2015 quarter, guest nights were up 6 per cent on the same quarter last year, he said. An increase in flights to Auckland, cheaper fuel prices decreasing international flight costs, and a boost in visitors from China will continue to benefit regions like Northland, said Mr Kiernan. The spilling population from Auckland would combine with continuing surges in house sales, as Northland's sales were up 70 per cent from the same quarter to October in 2014.
"There are two main drivers - people relocating to Northland for a better lifestyle and affordability, and investors buying up better properties for less. The Auckland sales market will slow ... the Northland market is heating up."
He said the exodus from Auckland was contributing to population growth, in the region witnessing the largest growth in 12 years with figures up 1.4 per cent to June 2015, an additional 2300 residents. According to Statistics NZ's population estimates for June 30 last year to the same time this year, population increased by 1500 people (1.8 per cent) in Whangarei, 300 people (1.4 per cent) in the Far North and 500 people (2.3 per cent) in Kaipara.