Niwa says there's a 70 per cent chance temperatures will be at or above average in Northland over the next three months, but warns there could also be storms on the way.
On average, New Zealand experiences at least one sub-tropical cyclone passing within 550km of the country each year, with Northland bearing the brunt of it.
Ex-tropical cyclone Wilma was the last adverse weather occurrence in Northland in January 2011, dumping up to 280mm of rain in parts of the region in 19 hours.
The storm caused widespread flooding, slips and damage to roads and property, and left about 3500 properties across the region without power.
Cyclone Lusi struck the region in March and Ita - the remnants of which that swept through north Queensland - in April, with heavy rain and winds of up to 120km/h. It caused more than $150,000 in repair bills in the Far North.
And in March 1988, Cyclone Bola caused widespread devastation across Northland over three days.
"If an ex-tropical cyclone comes close to the country, the current background climate conditions suggest it has a higher probability of passing east rather than west of Auckland city," the outlook said.
Niwa climate scientist Dr Andrew Lorrey said an ex tropical or a tropical cyclone could approach Northland from the north west or the north east.
"There's no climate study done specifically for Northland but Northland typically bears the brunt of tropical cyclones coming out of the tropics," he said.
Mr Lorrey said the greatest risk of an ex tropical cyclone hitting Northland would be in February and March.
