Rugby: Banking on a whole lot of bad luck for others ...

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Having already secured a semifinal berth, the Taniwha are talking about playing it at Toll Stadium. However, for that to happen they need a bit of luck.

In order for the fantasy of a home semifinal to continue, Northland will need to beat Auckland at Eden Park this Saturday night - although all the influencing factors will happen before the Taniwha kick off.

To give Northland an extra bite at the cherry fans will want Manawatu to lose to Otago and not gain a bonus point on Friday night. But, even if this was to happen, Northland would still need a bonus point win and to be clear of Auckland by at least 20 points.

If Manawatu pick up a bonus point then it all falls on Saturday's Ranfurly Shield match between Hawke's Bay and Southland.

Taniwha fans should be supporting the men from the south in this one, with a change of the Ranfurly Shield holders making things that much easier for Northland.

For Southland, they must win to give them a chance at making the semifinals so they have plenty to play for - as if the Ranfurly Shield wasn't enough.

Again though, bonus points may be enough to deny Northland the home semi. If Hawke's Bay secure a bonus point win then it's all over, but if not, then it will come down to for and against.

Manawatu and Hawke's Bay must both lose by a lot to give Northland a good shot.