"The situation is changing just about daily at the moment and with the king tides coming up [in the coming] week, numbers might be changing again," a Department of Conservation (DoC) spokeswoman said.
DoC is imploring people to stay away from nesting sites, and dogs are banned from Waipu and Mangawhai sandspits.
But time and tide could yet undo the best efforts to keep New Zealand's rarest shorebird, also called tara-iti, in existence.
In a quirk of nature, fairy terns do not lay their eggs in safe places but in shallow scuffs in the sand called scrapes.
Hard to spot by the human eye, these nests are at the mercy of predators, wind drift, weather and high tides, as well as beach traffic, dogs and other dangers introduced by people.
Sand bagging, trench digging and trap setting are among methods used to protect the birds from a range of killers, the encroaching sea only one of them.
There are only three other sites where the bird breeds and they are at Te Arai, Waipu and Papakanui, the latter a spit below Kaipara Harbour's South Head.
Thanks to a discreet nurturing hand from DoC and a host of volunteers who trap predators, mark off nest sites from public access and closely monitor the chicks' progress, there has been a small revival in numbers in the past 30 years.
In 1983 the number dropped to an all-time low of three or four breeding pairs. DoC (then the New Zealand Wildlife Service) initiated a protection programme resulting in a population turnaround, albeit a still precarious one.
Fairy terns were once widespread around the North Island coast and South Island river mouths.