Northland could experience another drought this summer, with paddocks left parched as in the last drought, in 2020 (pictured).
Northland could experience another drought this summer, with paddocks left parched as in the last drought, in 2020 (pictured).
Northlanders need to get a drought action plan together now as the region looks like being drier and hotter this spring and summer with the El Nino weather system set to dominate the country.
The warning comes from Niwa principal scientist forecasting and media Chris Brandolino, with the Niwa Climate Summary for September to November highlighting the risks ahead from the expected El Nino.
The call is backed by the Northland Rural Support Trust, which helps farmers and horticulturists.
And, Brandolino said, all the indications are summer is also likely to be hotter and drier than normal, with a real risk of drought in Northland, and the Far North particularly in danger.
Northland has had seven droughts in the past 15 years and Brandolino said he wanted to give people a heads up to get their planning done now rather than wait for the big dry to arrive.
In the previous drought, in 2020, water supplies dried up in the Far North with the Awanui River — Kaitāia’s main supply — down to a trickle and water tanks having to be placed in the town and Kaikohe for residents to get potable water from.
“Luck favours the prepared and people need to keep a very close eye on things and now is the time for people to start preparing that plan for if the drought comes,” Brandolino said.
His sentiments are supported by the Northland Rural Support Trust, with chairwoman Michelle Ruddell saying the region’s farmers and horticulturists could be hit hard by another drought, and planning was the key to getting through.
New Zealand’s climate is about to take a “rapid turn”, giving Kiwis a taste of the hotter, drier summer much of the country will experience under El Nino.
There’s now also a good chance the long-anticipated climate system — which could be formally declared within weeks — will sit among the strongest El Ninos seen in the past 80 years, with officials already warning of fire danger and a heightened risk of drought.
Emergency water tanks were placed in the Te Ahu Centre carpark, Kaitāia, by Civil Defence during the 2020 drought, and experts are predicting a long, dry spring and summer this year.
For those regions hit hardest by the relentless rain and humidity of three years of La Nina, its counterpart climate driver is expected to bring the reverse setup, with long periods of summer heat and dryness fanned by persistent westerly flows.
Brandolino said Niwa had set up an online tool to help people see how dry, or wet, their region was going to be looking five weeks ahead.
Meanwhile, Ruddell said the Rural Support Trust was tasked with delivering support and help to farmers and horticulturists and had a range of ways it could help, including people on the ground working one on one with people.
“Those people are also from those local communities so they know what the issues are and what help they may need and are able to put them in contact with the range of help there is,” she said.
“The problem in Northland is that there is not a one size fits all as we have such diverse topography and soil types, so what may work in one part may not in another. That’s why it’s important farmers and growers get in touch and we can help.’’
She said the Northland Rural Support trust board was meeting this week, with the topic of drought and how to prepare for it high on the agenda.
“It’s been bonkers [for farmers and growers in the region] and the rural support trust is about supporting them to be prepared for what’s ahead and provide them with the connections and information they need.”
Ruddell said after being hit hard by Cyclone Gabrielle and other major wet-weather events over the past two years, farmers were facing a feed shortage, so she advised them to speak to their seed and feed suppliers now.
On top of that, Northland’s dairy farmers were facing a much-lower-than-expected dairy payout, so it seemed to be hit after hit for them.
However, help was at hand, she said, but it was important farmers and growers made contact with the trust so it could offer sound advice and help. The trust has already met with financiers and banks to discuss how they could help.
This El Nino — our first since 2016 — would also come against a background of climate change, and in tandem with another natural driver that had a hand in Australia’s catastrophic bushfires of 2019-20: a positive phase of what’s called the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) that could dramatically reduce the chance of seeing those tropical moisture plumes — so it’s kind of a double whammy of climate drivers that will be coming on quite strongly.
“That IOD will mean that the faucet [of moisture coming from the tropics to New Zealand] will become a drip,” Brandolino said.
Before that, however, things would take a turn within a few weeks, when the atmosphere “coupled” with oceans already in an El Nino-like state.
The country could be seeing days exceeding 25C during the second half of September and by the end of this month, or by mid-October, we’ll really have had our first real taste of this El Nino event, and what’s to come for the rest of 2023.
Fire and Emergency New Zealand service delivery wildfire manager Tim Mitchell said conditions forecast for summer were likely to come with higher levels of fire danger on the east coasts of both islands.
Parts of the Far North, mainly at Kaimaumau and Karikari peninsula, have been hit by devastating wildfires during recent droughts.
“Given this year’s flood events and wet conditions, people will likely find it difficult to understand the wildfire risk New Zealand could be facing soon,” Mitchell said.
“But a spell of hot, dry, windy weather will quickly dry out the grass and vegetation that has grown and will likely grow over the coming months, due to the moist soils and return to warmer weather. This will become a fire risk if not managed.”
Fenz was urging people in rural and semi-rural areas to prepare now by keeping grass short, moving flammable materials well away from their homes, clearing gutters and accessways to ensure rapid address numbers were visible, and having a plan of action ready.
