Northland is likely to be hit by more droughts and wildfires in the coming decades as rainfall drops and temperatures rise, according to the UN's latest update on climate change.
Released yesterday, the nearly 2000-page Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change update brings together scientists' findings since the last report in 2007 and tries to predict climate changes by 2100. It points to a continued trend of higher temperatures in New Zealand and lower rainfall in the north and east of the North Island. The west is expected to get wetter.
As a result droughts are expected to become more frequent in Northland. More fires are likely as well as longer fire bans in summer. The Far North is already the country's busiest fire district. Its current restricted fire season was declared in the October, the earliest on record.
Coastal regions such as Northland may also have to contend with infrastructure damage, flooding and erosion caused by rising sea levels. In the worst case sea levels will rise by just under a metre (0.53-0.97m) by 2100 but with tough mitigation the rise could be 0.28-0.6m.
While the report makes grim reading for Australia, New Zealand can expect some benefits from climate change. They include reduced need for heating in winter and hence lower energy demand, and fewer deaths from winter illnesses. Forestry and crops may benefit as plants grow faster in higher temperatures and CO2 levels.