With an ageing population, the trick for Northland keeping afloat in the next decade is to ensure its young population is sufficiently qualified and in meaningful jobs, an expert says.
Massey University professor Paul Spoonley said Northland had an influx of baby boomers but job growth and participation in work remained low, which could particularly hurt smaller towns.
He said two-thirds of the regions in New Zealand, including Northland, would suffer population stagnation or decline within the next 10 years as lack of jobs meant job seekers moved to other areas.
Professor Spoonley, whose areas of expertise include demography and social migration, said Northland's birth rate per 1000 people was 96 whereas the national figure was 79.
"You'll see a trend in Northland in the zero to 14 year age group in the coming decade. The trick for Northland is going to be how to make sure its young people are sufficiently qualified for a 21st century economy."