Has the recession finally bottomed out?

Northland has notched up the biggest fall in economic growth in the country but a leading economist predicts the worst of the recession could be over.
The National Bank's regional trends report shows Northland's growth fell 3.3 per cent in the year to March on the back of plummeting property sales, building consents, visitor numbers and car registrations.
National Bank economist Steve Edwards said the quarterly percentage change to March was less pronounced for Northland at 0.1 per cent but this had followed a 3.8 per cent drop in the December quarter. The fall in economic activity would be felt across the board.
"Businesses will be noticing less people coming through the door and buying, farmers are receiving lower prices, construction workers will be feeling the pinch, real estate agents will be selling fewer houses and car yards will be selling fewer cars."
It was unclear why Northland had been so hard hit but it was probably due to its close proximity to Auckland, the powerhouse of the national economy, Mr Edwards said.
"Auckland has had five consecutive quarters of negative growth and this may have rubbed off on Northland."
However, there were signs that the economy had hit rock bottom in March with early indications for June showing a slight rebound in the property market and improved business confidence.
"We anticipate slow, sluggish growth until the middle of 2010 when things will pick up a bit more," he said. "It looks like March was the low point."
Enterprise Northland chief executive Brian Roberts said the region's strong links with Auckland were contributing to the negative trend.
"Auckland is our biggest visitor market accounting for 50 per cent of our visitor figures and it is also our biggest trading destination," he said. "But I would say we are at the bottom of the pendulum."
Northland Chamber of Commerce chief executive Jeff Smith said some companies were doing better than others.
"Paihia tourism operators are saying 'we haven't seen a recession yet' and retailers in Waipu are saying they haven't really been affected but some retailers in Kaikohe have seen their turnover go down by 70 per cent.
"The economic indicators are pointing in one direction but there are a lot of different stories within that."
Nationally annual economic growth slipped to -1.4 per cent in the 12 months to March, the slowest year-on-year rate of growth in the composite index since 1978.
The northern-most regions of the North Island experienced the greatest contraction but West Coast, Gisborne and Wellington share the distinction of recording a positive rate of growth in the 12 months to March.