A Ministry of Health modelling is predicting up to 16,000 Omicron cases in Northland at its peak.
Photo / Supplied
A Ministry of Health modelling is predicting up to 16,000 Omicron cases in Northland at its peak.
Photo / Supplied
Northland could experience up to 16,000 Covid cases a month at the peak of the Omicron outbreak, according to Government modelling.
The Ministry of Health said between 9000 and 16,000 monthly cases could occur in the region, based on how Omicron has affected Australia and other countries since December.
Ofthose, 350 to 720 people may need hospital treatment each month and 10 to 15 of whom - "who are mostly unvaccinated" - would need ICU care, the ministry said.
Northland's case numbers have climbed in the last week from just one on January 31 - the region's first recorded case of Omicron - to 14 yesterday.
Friday saw a record number of daily cases announced in Northland with 21, a figure repeated again on Saturday.
It is believed the virus was contracted by an actor's family member when he attended the SoundSplash music festival in Hamilton last month. It then spread to the actor and other cast members.
Six more cases were announced in Kerikeri yesterday, alongside two in Whangārei, and one in Hokianga North. Nine of those cases had been linked to previous cases and five remained under investigation.
As of yesterday, there were 97 active cases in Tai Tokerau from a total of 218 recorded since October 22 - none of whom were currently in hospital.
On February 2, Covid was detected in wastewater samples from Kerikeri, Mangawhai, and Whatuwhiwhi - a settlement at the northern end of Tokerau Beach on the Karikari Peninsula.
Dr Bart Willems, medical officer of health for Ngā Tai Ora Public Health Northland, said it was likely similar trends to Kerikeri case numbers would "eventually" appear elsewhere in the region.
"A slower and more controlled outbreak will help us protect Māori and our most vulnerable by allowing time for more vaccinations and supporting the healthcare system to care for everyone who needs it safely."
Currently, Northland is 193 doses away from being 90 per cent partially vaccinated. However, only 87 per cent of the 161,320 Northlanders eligible have received two jabs.
According to Willems, it was likely around 75 per cent of Northland's unvaccinated population - more than 20,000 people - would get Omicron.
He described them and partially vaccinated people as the most at risk of Covid-19.
"In an extremely fast and uncontrolled outbreak, Northland is more vulnerable to the risk of health services and critical services being unable to keep up with demands."
"Because of the infectiousness and speed of spread of Omicron, the numbers of people with severe disease at any one time could still pose a risk to the health system and critical services."
The Ministry of Health told the Advocate it had been planning for Omicron to "rapidly" become the main variant within two to four weeks after the country's first community cases.
"Whether it's Delta or Omicron, continuing to effectively manage our response outbreak in the face of rising case numbers is key," a ministry spokesperson said.
Part of that was modelling, as it provided useful information for scenario planning around the health system.
The ministry said a range of results from different modellers had been seen over the course of the pandemic.
